
Over Easter weekend I was struck with gratitude for many things. One of those things that readers of this blog may find interesting occurred when I exchanged some emails with a physician entrepreneur whose business is nearly 100% dependent on live speaking events. As I reflected longer, I realized diversification has really protected us from risks that we could not foresee. At the risk of being that guy who points out “you should have bought flood insurance” after the flood, I'm going to talk about three ways that diversification has benefitted us recently.
#1 A Side Gig
Perhaps the most unexpected aspect of the CoronaBear for readers of this blog was that many doctors were laid off, furloughed, or at least had their income dramatically reduced. This included doctors that you would have expected to be “on the front line” such as emergency physicians. Volumes in emergency departments are down dramatically all across the country. As hospitals, physicians, the media, and the population turned their focus almost completely to coronavirus, elective procedures were shelved and even much of what you would not think was elective was either delayed or not done.
Like most of you, my clinical income has already dropped significantly and I expect it to get worse in coming months. It may not snap right back either. A business that we have spent decades building has been maimed essentially overnight.
Another of my partners also has a side job that he spends about half of his time on. The first time he saw me after this all began he asked, “Aren't you glad this ER job isn't your only source of income?” I sure am.
In addition, I'm also really glad that my ER job and my side gig at The White Coat Investor aren't my only sources of income.
I for one never really expected medicine to not be a super stable source of income. But diversifying our income protected us against a risk that I could not see.
#2 Multiple Business Streams of Income
Over the last 9 years here at The White Coat Investor, we have consistently worked at developing different sources of income and “product lines”. Online entrepreneurs basically make money in four different ways:
- Display ads/sponsorships
- Affiliate marketing (selling other people's products)
- Selling their own products
- Selling their time (speaking, writing, consulting)
Each of these four methods has been responsible for the majority of the income of the business at one time or another over the years as the business has evolved. But even when one of them seemed to be doing really well, we continued to work on all of the others.
Several of these methods of earning were smacked down in the CoronaBear. For example, all of my speaking gigs in April through June were cancelled, many of the companies we were partnering with to do affiliate marketing are either in dire straits themselves or are temporarily cutting back on their marketing efforts, and we're certainly not currently working on WCICON21 like we expected we would be at this time. However, our readership/listenership (eyeballs on ads) are up and many docs (including us) are coming out with great new online courses.
We also have many different “product lines” among our advertisers, such as disability insurance, mortgages, student loan refinancing, financial advisors, and real estate investing companies. We have built business relationships with several to dozens of these companies in each product line. Altogether, we have hundreds of these partnerships. So even if some of them are not doing well or choose not to advertise with us for a while, or even if entire product lines are decimated (who wants to refinance their federal student loans when there are no payments or interest until September 30th?), we still have something coming in.
I'm now grateful that we maintained as many of these relationships as we could over the years, even when some of them were not very profitable by themselves. That diversification protected us from risks that we could not see.
#3 A Diversified Portfolio
We also appreciate our diversified portfolio. We invest in stocks, bonds, and real estate. We do so primarily using low-cost, broadly diversified index funds. We pretty much own every publicly traded company in the world. So while we own Royal Caribbean, Norwegian Cruise Line, and Delta Airlines, we also own Amazon, Zoom, and Netflix. There's no need for us to have a clear crystal ball to decide who the winners and losers are going to be in advance. Some of our real estate is connected to the stock market (publicly-traded REITs) and some are not (private funds and syndications.) Some of our fixed-income holdings are nominal and some are inflation-indexed and some have stable principal. We are also diversified by factors (small and value). This diversification has limited our losses and ensured that we have assets that perform differently in different economic scenarios.
Many of you know about my elderly parents' portfolio. It is 50% stocks and 50% bonds. The last I looked at it the market was down 18% from peak and their portfolio was down 9% from peak. Diversification works. Not only do bonds reduce losses in a nasty bear market, they increase your ability to tolerate losses. My parents can be reassured that they can take RMDs for well over a decade without needing to actually sell stocks low. Even at their age, they can ride this out.
Our diversified portfolio has once more protected us from risks that we could not necessarily foresee. Although of the three topics in this post this one was the one that was the easiest to foresee (bear markets happen on average once every three years), it still works just like it did in the past.
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What do you think? How has diversification of your income sources and investments helped you in this bear market?
I had already slowly moved more to bonds over the past few years with my investments which has helped a lot. And my house is a good portion of my net worth. Amazon’s HQ2 is now settling down just about 2 miles from my house, so while the market has gone down my house value continues to go up. Lastly my graphic arts business took some serious revenue hits when the market first crashed but has rebounded nicely and I should have my first ever 5-figure year in revenue.
Diversification helps for sure. That is why my family and I will be fine through all this as well.
Being debt-free with multiple income streams surely helps! Here’s where financial planning and living below your means really help.
On the other hand, I noticed diversification never protects me from all losses. It just minimizes them. I have been investing for decades so I have been through a lot of cycles.
The last crisis (2007-2008) brought down about 10 of my 12 asset classes. I thought I was so diversified but almost everything went down including REITs, international stocks, etc. My bonds helped.
But in that crisis, I still had a high and stable clinical income. I also had profitable investments in medical office buildings, physical therapy, surgery centers, and imaging centers. Those have now all taken a hit along with the financial markets. Real estate is hanging in there ok so far (at least the private ones) but vacancy rates will likely creep up as valuations decline. Unemployment is surging and those effects are yet to be seen.
The more margin we can build, the better. It is a reminder to myself. Build high revenue. Start more sources of cash flow. Keep expenses low and variable. Invest prudently and steadily in a way that won’t cause me to panic. Never get complacent.
This is my first bear market where I have a significant amount invested. Having a bond allocation, even though it’s only 20% of my portfolio, has helped immensely from a psychological perspective.
Some of my colleagues are invested in rental properties (direct, not REITs), and in this case the extra diversification is causing more problems due to tenants potentially not paying rent for several months.
At least you haven’t been furloughed, one advantage of self-employment. Most groups seem to have taken a cut of 30% or so; is that in line with what you’ve experienced??
Jim great post as always. What is your drawdown strategy during this bear for you parents? did they take their RMD for this year? going forward in the middle of this bear are you going to lower their withdrawal rate and only withdraw bonds until the market bounces back? What would be your criteria for the market having bounced back and start drawing down your parents equities again?
I can’t get them to spend their RMDs so each December they give some to charity and move the rest to taxable. This year they won’t have to move any to taxable.
I’m certainly not going to lower their withdrawal rate from zero. In fact, I deliberately called and encouraged them to spend more like I always do. We did rebalance this month per the plan. Actually sold some TSM during the process…they were still overweight from the last year.
A lot of people are saying the current market is more of a stock pickers’ market as so many industries are so badly affected by Covid and the shut-down. Seems like main recommendations are just tech and healthcare and to avoid index funds.
What do you think and are you still sticking with your porfolio?
Thanks
dude no way man! stick with the original portfolio man! Keep diversified! you just don’t know if tech and healthcare stocks or even indexes of those sectors have already priced in their real worth and might be overvalued and tank tomorrow or when the covid thing blows over.
so many industries are badly affected that their prices are down and now might be undervalued and at bargain prices. Unless your Ben Graham or Warren Buffet, you don’t know so just err on the side of broad US index fund.
Did your crystal ball somehow become more clear when the market turned down? Mine didn’t. And neither did anyone else’s.
https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/behavioral-finance-lessons-from-bear-markets/
Yes, I’m following the written investment plan I’ve followed through the last four bear markets that made us multimillionaires. I suggest you do the same.
https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/investing/you-need-an-investing-plan/
I’ve tried to post this 3 times. Is below still your asset allocation? If so, how would you replace TSP G fund? Also how would you replace debt and equity real estate funds? (I’m still trying to learn about them)
Portfolio 200 The New White Coat Investor Portfolio
25% Vanguard Total Stock Market Fund
15% Vanguard Small Cap Value Index Fund
15% Vanguard Total International Stock Market Fund
5% Vanguard FTSE Ex-US Small Index Fund
10% Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund
10% TSP G Fund
5% Vanguard REIT Index Fund
5% Debt Real Estate (primarily private hard money lending funds)
10% Equity Real Estate (primarily private funds and syndications)
Yes.
A ST treasury fund for the G Fund
Perhaps publicly traded REITs if you wish- Vanguard’s fund for equity and REM for debt would be reasonable alternatives. Or just buy the private stuff if you want to copy me for some bizarre reason!
WCI – you should do a poll about now. Who thinks the market will stabilize or increase vs who thinks the market will drop significantly?
Personally, I think the market has a lot more to drop. And unlike a rising tide (which floats all boats), a drying up lake sinks all boats (or at least they won’t be floating!). I’m not changing my allocation at all (with the exception of increasing my position in Bitcoin by a couple percent which has nothing to do with my market prediction), but I don’t think we are anywhere near the bottom yet. I hope my crystal ball is wrong.
Thanks,
Would you really change your plan based on the poll? The one I did a month ago was totally wrong at least so far.
Dude since I’m 38 actually I hope your crystal ball is right. As Bill Bernstein says a young investor should be praying to the gods for a bad bear market.
Course I don’t want it to be Japanese style but you know what I mean 🙂
Hello!
I am brand new to learning about the world of investing, and just recently started reading your book/blog, youtube video bloggers regarding the subject these last few weeks while on quarantine between shifts, etc. So, please bear with my newbie questions!! I appreciate everything you’re doing to educate people like me!
I just opened up a Roth IRA with vanguard, and trying to figure out my approach to build my portfolio. I was going to go with a simple strategy for now and do 100% S&P 500 index fund or a 100% Total stock market index fund… however, do you think I should include some bonds and go for more of a 3 fund portfolio instead to have more diversification? I read about this 100-age rule in determining stocks/bonds ratio, but seems many also have the 1 index fund strategy. I’m 31, currently in fellowship, (2 more years to go – i wish I had learned all of this in before residency).
From everything I’ve learned, I suppose as long as I pick something and stick with it.. I guess I’m just stuck in this “analysis paralysis” phase, and figured it was time to just get my thoughts out and see if I can get some type of advice before I make the official move.
Thank you!
Start here:
https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/investing/you-need-an-investing-plan/
https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/150-portfolios-better-than-yours/
https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/investing/simple-investing-plans/
Your question is very common and I wrote these posts exactly for them.
Dude I am so jealous of you!!! I started reading all this stuff last year, 7 years into attending hood and having made horrible financial mistakes of buying whole life insurance, not paying down debt and lifestyle inflation.
Keep reading man!!! you are going to be a very rich man if you read all of Jim’s stuff. but yes I would recommend bonds because as you will read you do not know your true risk tolerance. Without bonds, your portfolio can fall, 20, 30, 40, even 50%!!!! Such as now in this bear market, somebody 100% total US stock index fund saw in the month of March, say if they had one million bucks, lose $300,000!!!! Their is a visceral, emotional drive to do the worst thing as you see this, and it is to sell your stock index fund to stop the bleeding, which is the worse idea to ever do.
Can you stomach that? if they had 50% stocks and 50% bonds, they would have only lost around $150,000 in the month of March, and would be less tempted to sell all the stocks low and commit financial suicide.
One important principle to keep in mind as you read WCI is that stocks will always go back up. Don’t give into that visceral, emotional feeling to sell low and stop the bleeding.
Well done man on getting started so early.
And don’t buy whole life insurance.