
Portfolio design is a big part of what we do here at The White Coat Investor. I frequently get the question, “How do I choose an asset allocation (portfolio)?” This is the ultimate analysis paralysis issue. There are so many ways to invest successfully that the most important thing is to just pick something reasonable and stick with it. I've listed reasonable portfolios before, and it has been one of our most successful posts ever. Maybe it was the clickbaity title “150 Portfolios Better Than Yours” (subsequently increased to 200), but it's more likely that people liked the list of possible portfolios. Or maybe, just maybe, they understood the point of the post, which was that we have no idea in advance what the ideal portfolio will be.
The Investing Questions You Will Need to Answer
In reality, the selection of an asset allocation—at least a static, strategic, long-term asset allocation—is simply the sum total of the answers to 15 questions. The truth is that the answer to these questions will differ for everyone. While there are some wrong answers, there are plenty of right ones. Just because the answers are highly variable—even between successful investors—it doesn't get you out of having to actually answer the questions to decide on an asset allocation.
I can argue with you all day that the way I answered the questions is the right way to answer them. But reasonable people can and should disagree with me on many points. In this post, I'm mostly just going to give you the questions. When you have answers you are comfortable with, you will have an asset allocation.
- What will be the ratio of your risky assets (like stocks) to your non-risky assets (like bonds)?
- What will be the ratio of your US stocks to international stocks?
- Will you tilt your portfolio toward factors (like small and value)? If so, which ones? How much will you tilt?
- Will you tilt your portfolio toward sectors (energy, tech, healthcare)? If so, which ones and how much?
- Will you tilt on the international side or just the domestic side?
- How much of your portfolio will you invest in non-publicly traded assets?
- Bonds, CDs, both, or neither?
- Cash, bonds, both, or neither?
- What will be the ratio of nominal bonds to inflation-indexed bonds?
- Will you use savings bonds (I, EE)?
- Will you invest in Treasuries? Muni bonds? Corporate bonds? Mortgage bonds?
- What will be your ratio of US to international bonds?
- What maturity/duration bonds will you invest in?
- Will you be investing in real estate? How?
- Will you be investing in any of the following and, if so, with how much of the portfolio?
- Microcap stocks?
- Cryptoassets?
- Oil and gas investments?
- Precious metals (gold, silver, platinum)?
- Commodities?
- Options and other derivatives?
- Hedge funds?
- Reinsurance?
- Viaticals?
- Mineral rights?
- Water rights?
- Horses?
- Film tax credits?
- Whole life insurance?
- Diamonds?
- Currencies?
- Peer-to-peer lending?
- Wine?
- Farm or timberland?
- Websites?
How Do You Answer These Questions?
A lot of people simply throw up their hands when they see this list of questions.
“This is going to be impossible,” they might say. “I'll just hire someone to answer the questions for me.”
What you don't realize is that nobody else knows the right answers either. Your chances of choosing the right answers are probably not much worse than theirs are. Plus, you have an advantage. At least you know YOU, and since the answer to many of the questions comes down to what you're comfortable with (and especially what you're comfortable with in a nasty market downturn), you have an advantage over a professional.
More information here:
How to Build an Investment Portfolio for Long-Term Success
My Answers
Let me give you an example. It's a very personal example. It's my (our) portfolio. I had to choose the answers. I didn't always know the answer, but like a good surgeon (“Sometimes wrong but never in doubt!”), I knew I had to make a decision. So, I made it and stuck with it! Long-term readers have seen my portfolio before so this won't be particularly revelatory. But the WHY behind each piece might be.
#1 Ratio of Risky Assets (Like Stocks) to Non-Risky Assets (Like Bonds)?
For me, it's 80/20. Why do I bother with 20% in non-risky assets? Two big reasons. No. 1, I've been an investor through five bear markets (2008, 2011, 2018, 2020, 2022), and 80/20 balances out my fear of missing out (FOMO) with my fear of loss. Having 20% of my assets in pretty darn safe stuff allows me psychologically to continue to take risks with the other 80%. I started at 75/25 and bumped it up a little over the years as I realized I could tolerate a little more but probably not too much more. No. 2, I know there is a possibility that these non-risky assets could outperform the risky ones over very long time periods.
#2 Ratio of US Stocks to International Stocks?
For us, it's 2:1 (the portfolio has 40% US stocks and 20% international stocks). I expect similar long-term returns from both types of stocks, but I know I'm highly likely to be spending dollars in retirement, so having greater than a 1:1 ratio (and greater than market weight in US stocks) makes sense as it reduces my currency risk while still providing some currency and country diversification.
#3 Tilting Portfolio Toward Factors (Like Small and Value)?
Yes. Small (on the US and international side) and value (on the US side), and it's 5:3 on the US side (25%:15%) and 3:1 on the international side (15%:5%). I believe the long-term data on small and value factors will produce higher long-term returns. I think this is mostly a risk story (small and value companies are riskier) but also a behavioral story (people are naturally attracted to large growth stocks and bid them up in price more than they should due to familiarity). I think this additional complexity in the portfolio will pay off with higher returns in the long run.
#4 Tilting Portfolio Toward Sectors (Energy, Tech, Healthcare)?
No. I have no idea which sectors are likely to outperform going forward, so I just buy them all at market weight. I do not view real estate as “just a sector” because it acts differently from other businesses and because so much of it is held in private hands.
#5 Tilting on the International Side or Just the Domestic Side?
Both, as noted above, but in slightly different ways. This is a bit of a historical accident. There were no good low-cost small value index funds when I built my portfolio. In fact, there were no good small index funds when I did so. Vanguard later added the latter, so I added the tilt. There are now good low-cost international small value ETFs but, you know, there's inertia (and now capital gains taxes) at play. And inertia has actually served me pretty well over the years by helping me to stay the course. There might be a possible future change there, though.
#6 Non-Publicly Traded Assets?
We have 15%. The benefit here is a lower correlation with my publicly traded stocks, bonds, and real estate along with a theoretical illiquidity premium.
#7 Bonds, CDs, Both, or Neither?
Bonds, primarily because they're easier to buy using a diversified fund and, thus, a little less hassle to maintain. There are also a lot more varieties available.
#8 Cash, Bonds, Both, or Neither?
Bonds. I use cash only for short-term money, like my next quarterly tax payment, making payroll, or buying a car.
#9 Ratio of Nominal Bonds to Inflation-Indexed Bonds?
For us, it's 1:1. While my preference is for inflation-indexed bonds (due to their elimination of the greatest risk to bonds—inflation), I know that most bonds are not inflation-indexed. Having a 1:1 ratio also allows me to be agnostic on the topic of whether future inflation will be higher or lower than the market predicts.
#10 Using Savings Bonds (I, EE)?
Yes, I Bonds. These unique inflation-indexed bonds make up part of our inflation-indexed bond portfolio and act slightly differently than TIPS. Their annoying downside? One can only conveniently purchase so much every year. We could simplify the portfolio a bit by dumping them and just using TIPS but unfortunately could not do the opposite.
#11 Investing in Treasuries? Muni Bonds? Corporate Bonds? Mortgage Bonds?
Only Treasuries and muni bonds. I am of the school of thought that it is best to take your risk on the equity side where it is more clearly seen and more tax-efficient, so our bonds tend to be very safe. My bond portfolio contains I Bonds, TIPS, and the TSP G Fund—all backed by the federal government with its power to tax and make war. Since I am forced to hold bonds in taxable, we also have a major holding of muni bonds due to our high tax bracket. However, if we could get enough money into the TSP, we'd still hold the G Fund as our only nominal bond holding.
#12 Ratio of US to International Bonds?
For us, it's 1:0. You don't have to invest in everything to be successful. I feel like I get enough currency diversification on the stock side that I don't need to duplicate that on the bond side.
#13 What Maturity/Duration of Bonds?
Short to intermediate term. Again, I prefer to take my risk on the stock side. Consider our holdings. I Bonds (no term risk), TSP G fund (no term risk), Schwab TIPS ETF (some term risk), individual TIPS, mostly <5 years (no term risk if held to maturity), Vanguard intermediate muni bond fund (some term risk). And I'm considering swapping the TIPS and muni funds for their newer short-term brethren that were not available when I originally set up the portfolio. Like the rest of the portfolio, this is also designed with the most common deep risk (inflation) in mind.
#14 Investing in Real Estate? How?
Yes, with 20% of the portfolio (5% in publicly traded REITS, 10% in private equity real estate, and 5% in private debt real estate funds). I have more on the equity side for the same reason I have more on the equity side with stocks and bonds; I want higher returns, and taking on more risk is likely to lead to them. My preference is for evergreen funds because they allow for greater tax-efficiency, ease of reinvestment, and increased liquidity. Real estate has high returns like stocks. It's more easily leveraged to provide even higher returns, and it has low to moderate correlation with stocks (which are the largest building block in my portfolio). I find stocks easy to understand; I tolerate their volatility well; and I love the simplicity, liquidity, lack of manager risk, availability, and easy diversification provided by stock index funds. Thus, my ratio of stocks to real estate is 3:1 (60% stocks, 20% real estate).
#15 Investing in Any of the Following and with How Much of the Portfolio?
- Microcap stocks?
- Cryptoassets?
- Oil and gas investments?
- Precious metals (gold, silver, platinum?)
- Commodities?
- Options and other derivatives?
- Hedge funds?
- Reinsurance?
- Viaticals?
- Mineral rights?
- Water rights?
- Horses?
- Film tax credits?
- Whole life insurance?
- Diamonds?
- Currencies?
- Peer-to-peer lending?
- Wine?
- Farm or timberland?
- Websites?
No, but I certainly think about it all the time! The main reason I don't is that you don't have to invest in everything to be successful. Mathematically speaking, you should use at least three asset classes, and there is significant benefit to using as many as seven and maybe even some benefit as you get up to 10. Beyond 10 asset classes, you're just playing with your money, and the additional hassle and complexity probably don't increase portfolio performance. Depending on how you count asset classes and sub-asset classes, we're already at 9-11.
I have invested in microcaps, whole life, and peer-to-peer lending in the past, and I've given serious consideration to viaticals, farmland, timberland, and websites. Most recently, I looked closely at oil and gas investments. It's a constant struggle to not reach for the latest shiny thing, and having a written investing plan helps me to stay the course with the long-term, very successful plan.
More information here:
Our Asset Allocation
If you put it all together, our asset allocation looks like this:
Stocks (60%)
- US Total Market 25%
- US Small Value 15%
- International Total Market 15%
- International Small 5%
Bonds (20%)
- 10% Inflation-indexed (TIPS, I Bonds)
- 10% Nominal (G Fund, munis)
Real Estate (20%)
- 5% Publicly traded equity REITs
- 10% Private equity real estate
- 5% Private debt real estate
While this is unlikely to be the best allocation for any time period, it certainly has been and almost surely always will be “good enough” to reach our financial goals. And that's all that matters.
When you can answer all 15 of the questions in this post, you will then have a real asset allocation. Feel free to ask these questions to other white coat investors in real life and in our communities. You will receive many opinions, but in the end, you'll need to decide for yourself. If you need someone else to tell you what to invest in, we offer that, too.
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What do you think? What is your asset allocation and why? How did you arrive at it?
I had to look up viaticals.
That’s a pretty morbid investment vehicle.
Haha, agree. I always thought it was just a bad look for docs to be invested in viaticals and life settlements. I’d personally feel creepy if it turned out I had an investment in one of my terminally ill patients 😳.
-Excellent list of questions to consider before setting your allocation. Would also consider your time frame but I think the assumption for this list is that it is a long term time frame.
I would suggest you get 90% of the benefit from the first two questions — stock/bond ratio and us/domestic ratio. This also means you’ve made the decision to index. Most could skip the rest and do fine once they’ve made the indexing/ no market timing decision.
Good article on creation/thought process for an asset allocation. The wherewithal to stick with an asset allocation is the thing that causes investors issues, especially ‘fear’; where short term performance is driving non-optimal decisions of a long term asset allocation/portfolio.
Jim great post as always. Have you found that your answers to these questions might still change despite being a few decades now into your investing career? Or have you found at certain point the answer to these questions don’t seem to change much once you hit a critical point in your investing knowledge and acumen?
also, when you say mathmatically speaking there might be some benefit to having up to 7, possibly 10 asset classes in a portfolio, is that because of utilizing non-correlated assets and optimizing your risk adjusted return? I myself only have 3 asset classes (could be considered just 1 if looking broadyly as I have an AA of 50% total US, 25% total international and 25% small cap value) and this statement makes me fearful I’m somehow not optimized of my goal to make the most freaking money I can knowing I have high risk tolerance. I plan on adding bonds 5 years before I retire.
We haven’t made a change to our AA in like 6 or 8 years.
There’s no promise that adding more asset classes will definitely increase your return, but I don’t find it hard to believe that more than one is probably a good idea. Theoretically 7 asset non correlated asset classes with similar returns should be a pretty robust portfolio.
I had a question regarding your thoughts on the G fund.
I, like you, am an ex Air Force ER doc and have about $200K in the TSP which I can no longer contribute to. Currently approximately 40% of it is in the G fund, the rest is split between the C, S, and I funds. I am still in the accumulation phase, and have been purchasing total bond index funds periodically in my i401K account and TIPS in my backdoor Roth to keep my total bond allocation at my desired 15% of my total assets.
Instead, do you think it would be more appropriate at this stage to continue to buy stocks aggressively in my i401k, Roth IRA, and taxable accounts and slowly exchange my stock funds in the TSP to the G fund to keep my total asset allocation at my desired percentage until my TSP is all G fund, and only then purchase further bonds in other accounts once I reach a level in which my total assets necessitate buying further bonds to keep them at the percentage laid out in my written financial plan? Or is there value in keeping C, S, and I funds in the TSP and spreading out bonds as I’ve been doing?
Thanks for your thoughts.
-Dave
I did the former. I don’t see the C, S, I, or F funds as anything special, but I can’t get the G fund anywhere else.
Thanks!
My favorite part of the article was about asset allocation. “I’ve been an investor through five bear markets (2008, 2011, 2018, 2020, 2022), and 80/20 balances out my fear of missing out (FOMO) with my fear of loss”
Guess my set it and forget it has worked well for me. Didn’t even realize a few of those. (was using target date funds that carry a 90/10 ratio only until a little over a year ago when I started a taxable account). Started investing in 2008 during 1st year of residency so was grateful for a drop when purchasing. Didn’t realize ‘11, ‘18, or ‘22. 2020 was an obvious one mainly b/c of the cause.