Your 2024 Crystal Ball Predictions Revisited: Was Anybody Actually Right?

Three hundred and fifty seven days ago, we published the 2024 crystal ball predictions from The White Coat Investor readers. As is usually the case, I thought most of them would be wrong. Maybe somebody would get lucky, but for the most part, we know there’s a reason why one of the mantras on this site has always been (and I’m paraphrasing here): Stop asking me to predict the future; my crystal ball is cloudy.

When I wrote the 2024 crystal ball predictions column that ran on New Year’s Eve, there was uncertainty around the economy during what would become Joe Biden’s last year in office (an uncertainly that played a large role in getting Donald Trump reelected) even though equity investors seemed to have plenty of optimism at the time. We weren’t sure about AI and whether a bubble might pop, and we were also a little worried about the housing market and real estate investing (thanks, in part, to rising mortgage rates). We were pretty sure the Fed would lower interest rates at least a few times.

Twelve months later, the world has changed dramatically. Just like it does every year.

Since I’m a sucker for history (ancient and recent), let’s, for just a moment, return to the time of January 2024—when people didn’t know what they didn’t know but gave valiant predictions anyway—and figure out if anybody got anything right.

2024 Crystal Ball Prediction Results

Note: all of the 2024 predictions below are italicized.

 

From WCI columnist Rikki Racela:

• Growth stocks will continue to outperform value.
• The US stock market will continue to see new highs.
• The US will continue to outperform the rest of the world.
• Inflation will come back to its 2% target.
• The Fed will cut interest rates.

Pretty strong predictions from Rik. The stock market constantly saw new highs, and even though China had some of its biggest gains in the past 16 years (thanks to its decision to cut interest rates and inject 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion) into the financial system), the US continues to outperform. Inflation is currently in the 2.5% range (though many consumers, still worried about the price of eggs, apparently feel the US economy is heading in the wrong direction). As of December 2, growth stocks YTD were 37.71% while value stocks were 29.99%

 

A selection of predictions from reader Howard Zan, an interventional radiologist from Oklahoma:

• The federal, mortgage, and Treasury rates will go down but not to the level of 2021.
• The S&P 500 will go up, probably within 5%-10%.
• Value stocks beat growth this year.

The Fed cut rates by a total of 100 basis points in September, November, and December, so yes, interest rates are slowly coming back down to earth. The S&P 500 began the year at 4,742, and as of this writing, it was 6,045. That’s an increase of 27.5%. As noted above, value did not beat growth. Still, a solid job of looking into the future.

 

From WCI commenter AZRAD:

• The Fed starts to drop rates next year leading to the real estate market continuing to go up in price with low inventory.
• Provided it holds with the same candidates, if Trump is convicted of one of the major crimes, he loses the election. If he doesn’t (likely because they are delayed), then he beats Biden. This is not meant to be an endorsement either way.
• BTC continues its strong performance, up 50%-100%.
• The stock market will be lower than the end of 2023 but by less than 5%.

Trump’s 34 convictions didn’t matter, because he won the election anyway. Bitcoin, as of December 2, was up about 132% YTD. The stock market also was up more than 27%.

 

A selection of predictions from WCI commenter Steven Corwin, MD:

• Commercial real estate makes a comeback as companies put an end to remote working.
• First-time home buyers are still stuck renting as interest rates remain around 7%, and there is no inventory, keeping prices too high for them to afford.

Remote working, in many cases, has decreased, and it’s possible federal workers will be mandated to return to the office with the new presidential administration. As of this writing, the national mortgage rate is at about 6.9%, so he nailed that prediction. Maybe it IS better just to rent forever.

 

From financial analyst Jeremy Grantham:

“I wouldn't invest in the US, and the fact that I have said that for the last two years, and it's been brutally wrong, merely makes me more convinced because the gap between the valuations between the US and the rest of the world has become unprecedented.”

For the third year in a row, Grantham was brutally wrong. Maybe the fourth time is the charm?

 

From WCI commenter Fruitful:

1. Inflation re-accelerates by the end of the year, affecting nearly everything else on this list.
2. The Fed will not cut rates at all, or at least as much as is being predicted now. Currently the Fed Funds futures market is predicting 6 rate cuts in 2024 (the first being in March 2024) and the Fed dot plot is predicting 3 rate cuts. I predict no rate cuts or at most 1 to 2 rate cuts before the Fed has to reverse course in the latter part of 2024.
3. Donald Trump is elected president.
4. No recession. The most predicted recession still fails to materialize.
5. Housing market correction begins. House prices drop by 10%+ year over year in many markets.
6. Oil rises and exceeds $100/barrel at some point during the year.
7. Increased geopolitical turmoil/conflict in the Middle East, which affects global trade and contributes to #6.
8. Some commercial real estate and real estate syndicates will be in trouble when they have to refinance debt at higher than expected rates and lower valuations.

A little bit right, and a little bit wrong. The highest oil prices of the year were about $87 in April. And of course, the Middle East is still in turmoil. But he nailed the Trump and no recession picks.

 

From David Spilker, a retired ER doc:

• S&P will make an all-time high sometime during the year.
• US will get more involved in the Middle East war.
• Biden/Harris will beat Trump/Haley, and they promptly resign leaving us President Harris.
• Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce will marry.

Maybe it’ll be 2025 for Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce.

 

From Dr. Guo, a dentist from New Mexico:

• US stocks up about 10%
• BTC to all-time highs with alt coins massively outperforming
• Chinese stocks outperform US
• Small caps outperform large caps
• Trump vs. Biden election with Biden winning for the same reasons as 2020

Large caps outperformed small caps by about 10 percentage points. But he had a good call with Bitcoin.

 

A selection of predictions from WCI founder Dr. Jim Dahle:

• The Fed will make two or three 0.25% cuts in short-term interest rates.
• Inflation will continue to be moderate, in the 3% range.
• The yield curve will no longer be inverted, although it will still not be very steep at year's end.
• The US stock market will have a good year with returns of at least 5%.
• Numerous real estate syndicators will run into cash flow problems as mortgages reset at now higher rates, hindering the returns of multi-family real estate but providing opportunities for those with positive cash flow.
• Bitcoin will surpass its previous high and potentially even $100,000, and there will be people piling into it chasing performance again like the beginning of 2021.
• Warren Buffett will retire unexpectedly, precipitating a relatively brief but significant drop in the value of Berkshire Hathaway.
• Twitter will nearly go out of business and require a massive infusion of cash to stay viable as a pet project of Elon Musk.

He was right about the yield curve and inflation. It has been a tough time for some real estate syndicators, and Bitcoin exceeded 100,000. But Buffett is still going strong, and it doesn’t seem that Elon Musk or his businesses are going anywhere.

It seems that people’s crystal balls were less cloudy than normal for 2024. But I predict that will change in 2025.

Money Song of the Week

Luke Combs scored a big mainstream hit in 2023 with his cover of Tracey Chapman’s 1988 classic Fast Car, and whatever you thought about his performance and the cultural significance of his decision to remake the tune, it most importantly reminded people of the brilliance of Chapman’s storytelling and writing.

Take Mountains O’ Things for example.

In the first verse, Chapman sings, “The life I've always wanted/I guess I'll never have/I'll be working for somebody else/Until I'm in my grave/I'll be dreaming of a life of ease/And mountains oh mountains o' things.”

The point of view switches in the second verse, though. She continues, “To have a big expensive car/Drag my furs on the ground/And have a maid that I can tell/To bring me anything/Everyone will look at me with envy and with greed/I'll revel in their attention/And mountains oh mountains o' things.”

As noted by genius.com:

“This song covers the idea of greed and consumerism in our modern society, the idea that life is about more than just material goods . . . The song discusses how consumerism is used to keep people from gaining the important things in life like love and happiness.”

The topics of consumerism and greed are well-worn territory for the Money Song of the Week—with everybody from The Monkees (Pleasant Valley Sunday) to Pearl Jam (Green Disease) and Ben Harper (Excuse Me, Mister) singing about similar topics.

But wow, Chapman, even if it’s just her voice and her acoustic guitar, is in a league of her own. No matter what you think of Combs’ cover (I don’t want to like it, but every time I hear it, I dig it a little more), props to him for reminding us of her talent.

More information here:

Every Money Song of the Week Ever Published

Thread(s) of the Week

If you think this Thread is slightly tone-deaf, you’re not alone. Whether this story even happened or if it’s been embellished to make the OP look good (or foolish) is not really the point. While we talk all the time about how WCI is a safe space for high earners and wealthy workers to work out their problems while also touting their accomplishments, sometimes, if you’re too braggadocios, you’re going to get flamed on social media.

What are your predictions for 2025?

[EDITOR'S NOTE: For comments, complaints, suggestions, or plaudits, email Josh Katzowitz at [email protected].]