By Dr. James M. Dahle, WCI Founder
Over the last year, “meme stocks” have been featured repeatedly in the popular press and social media. This trend has been particularly dangerous for people who should be serious, long-term investors, but lack the financial literacy to properly build a diversified portfolio and follow a written investing plan.
What Is a Meme Stock?
A meme stock is simply a stock that is being talked about on the nightly news, around the water cooler at work, in Facebook groups and other social media platforms, and especially on forums or subreddits dedicated to stock trading and other short-term, high-risk investing techniques. If it is being discussed on r/wallstreetbets, it's probably a meme stock. Basically, like a good meme, a meme stock has “gone viral” on social and real-life media. It has likely just had a massive rise in value way out of proportion to its actual value as a business.
Examples of meme stocks from the last year include: Gamestop (Gamestonk?), AMC, Virgin Galactic, Plug Power, Palantir, Blackberry, and maybe even Tesla. There are even ETFs like BUZZ that simply invest in meme stocks.
What Is the Connection to Short Squeezes?
Many of the meme stocks have been tied to a short squeeze. Investors can short a stock by selling it before they actually buy it. In essence, these investors are betting that the price of the stock will fall. This is often done by sophisticated and wealthy investors via hedge funds. Other investors, for various financial and social reasons, decide to “short squeeze” the investors who sold the stock short. They do this by buying shares and bidding up the price of the heavily shorted stock. As the price rises, the short sellers are forced to cover their bet—in essence, buying high after selling low—which induces further price rises until the stock goes “to the moon” in a rocketship. Meme stock proponents often encourage each other to have “diamond hands” rather than weak hands that would sell too early.
Should You Buy Meme Stocks?
Short answer: No.
Long answer: Also no, at least not with any sort of serious money.
There are three reasons why you should not go out of your way to purchase meme stocks individually.
#1 You Already Own the Meme Stocks
Confession time: I own all of the meme stocks. If you think about it, you probably do too. They're all in the Total Stock Market Index Fund. Via that fund, over the last 17 years, I have bought Gamestop stock at prices ranging from $5-$50 a share. I benefitted from the price rise to almost $500 a share. It was a 10-bagger and even a 100-bagger for me. I was way better off than the people who didn't get in until $75 or $200 a share. Purchasing individual stocks instead of broadly diversified, low-cost, index mutual funds introduces uncompensated risk. Owning index funds always allows you to brag at cocktail parties, “Oh yeah, I bought that back when it cost less than $5 a share.”
#2 Speculation Is a Bad Habit to Get Into
Once a meme stock starts rising, its price has nothing to do with the underlying fundamentals of the company, which likely has at least some real assets and real earnings. Buyers are simply hoping they can find some sucker in the future to pay them more for their shares than they paid. In this respect, the investment has far more in common with speculative assets like gold, Bitcoin, empty land, or Beanie Babies than it does with the rest of the stocks in their portfolio. The key to long-term investing is to patiently purchase productive assets over the course of your lifetime. Stocks produce earnings, bonds produce interest, and real estate produces rents. A meme stock with a price-to-earnings ratio of 100 or even 1,000 or more produces nothing relative to the price paid. Yes, every stock has at least a bit of a speculative component, especially in the short term. But if a typical stock that's being held for the long-term has perhaps a 10% or 20% speculative component, a meme stock has a 99% speculative component.
#3 Meme Stocks Are a Short-Term Game
Finally, speculating in meme stocks is a short-term game. It is something you do over hours or perhaps days. It's more akin to gambling than investing. Investing is a long-term game, you against your long-term goals. Short-term investments don't really have a place there. Changing your focus from the long-term to the short-term can be particularly dangerous to a long-term investing plan. Behavioral finance issues aside, short-term investing carries significant transaction and tax costs. Like with cryptocurrencies, if you want to screw around with some tiny amount of your portfolio for fun, knock yourself out. But individual stocks, particularly meme stocks, are not a place for serious money.
Meme stocks—like NFTs, cryptocurrencies, and other exciting aspects of the markets—are great fun to watch, but your portfolio will likely thank you later for watching it from the sidelines. Or else your online account may look like this one:
Sure, this person only lost $13,000, but imagine if that had been $130,000 or $1.3 million or $13 million. There are gamblers in the markets doing that all the time. You should not be one of them.
What do you think? Do you “invest” in meme stocks? Why or why not? Comment below!
Smooth brained ape only know to buy AMC.
Loyal WCI since 2013, but wen Lambo?
The wait has been too long. 😭😭
HODL
My wife’s boyfriend said to buy more STONKZzzz 💎 🙌🏿
Sorry Jim. Still got my index funds, but $GME and $AMC are about sending a message. Wallstreet trying to short companies into bankruptcy and got caught. The stocks will squeeze and I will FIRE. 💎🙌🦍
I must be getting old. I thought AMC produced Jeeps and Ramblers.
AMC? That’s been a while.
Jeep’s ownership has passed from AMC to Chrysler, then Daimler Chrysler, then just Chrysler again, then, Fiat Chrysler, and now onto something call Stellantis. (That last one sounds like an overpriced, watery imported lager.)
While I agree with your basic thesis, I am reluctant to lump any of the “meme” companies together as a group and say “don’t invest here.” If a savvy investor we’re to do their own due diligence, as the original GameStop investor Keith Gill did, and enter these trades when the stock was undervalued at an attractive entry point, there is no reason why an otherwise good company should be avoided simply because it became popular.
I currently own shares of GameStop. I entered the trade at a very attractive price, and have had very good returns thus far. I am NOT “Diamond handing” for a short squeeze, nor am I in the trade for “a few hours.” I am long on the company’s turnaround plans, and have been attentively watching with glee as the new management team transforms the company. My 5 year price target is in the $300-500 range, and my 10-year price target is >$1000/share (no squeeze needed). This is based on fundamentals and my knowledge of the gaming industry and where the company is headed. Is this speculative? Yes, and there is some potential risk involved, especially with entering at current prices, but for savvy investors who entered at $40 in Feb, GME is a very good long term hold, and risk can be hedged (as I am also doing).
You can argue the merits of the Boglehead index fund approach all you want, but if investors are going to pick specific stocks at times, I don’t see why a good company/investment should be avoided simply because it becomes briefly popular. In fact, there may be a reason it becomes popular. That being said, most of the “meme stocks” also aren’t good investments. So you really need to do your DD.
Sounds like a lot of justification for doing something you admit is speculative and don’t seem to think is a good idea. It’s your money…hope it’s not too large of a chunk of it.
I think whether it’s a good idea depends on the entry point of the trade and the specific investor’s risk appetite. I’m quite happy with my own entry point and risk appetite and feel it’s a great long term stock for my specific situation and portfolio. But a new investor entering at the current price would be much higher risk than my own entry.
Every day you don’t sell is just like you bought today (aside from the obvious capital gains tax implications). You’re falling for the “house money” fallacy.
“Stocks produce earnings, bonds produce interest, and real estate produces rents”
Question: Do you really think bonds produce interest at this point?
Bond interest rates at this point are 0-2% in the US and less than that in Europe. The fed targets an inflation rate of 2-3%/year. Actual inflation rate argument aside (yes I would still argue the inflation rate is much higher than the CPI), even using the CPI and planned fed numbers the real rate on a bond return is now negative. So I would argue that Stocks produce earnings, Real Estate produces rents, but bonds do not produce interest at this point.
Thoughts?
Question: Do you really think bonds produce interest at this point?
Answer: Bonds pay 0-2% right now.
0% real beats -2% real, so yes, bonds produce interest, even if it isn’t very much.
PLTR is a meme stock? Idk man…
There’s obviously no strict definition, but it did go up from $10 to $39 in just a few months so some consider it a meme stock.