I saw a tweet a while back that got me thinking:
It got me thinking about ratios and rules of thumb. I thought it would be fun to do a post about two related, but slightly different ratios and see if we could come up with any useful rules of thumb:
- Your Investment to Payment Ratio and
- Your Investment to Interest Ratio
Let's take them one at a time and see how implementing the proper ratios can help you build wealth.
Investment to Payment Ratio
This ratio is the amount of money you invest in a given month compared to the minimum required payments on all of your debts. So let's say you make $20K a month, have a $3500 P&I payment on your house, a $1500 per month student loan payment, a $20 credit card payment, and a $480 per month car payment. That's a total of $5500 in payments. Let's say you're saving $2,000 a month. That would make your investment to payment ratio:
$2,000/$5,500 = 0.36
That seems pretty low to me. What would be good? Well, I think it's a good idea to keep this ratio above 1, at least for a high income professional. That's going to require some sacrifice and discipline though. What does a ratio of 1 look like? It looks about like this. Again, let's assume that same $20K a month gross income. Let's say you're putting 20% toward retirement and 5% toward college, so you're investing $5K. You kept your student loans down ($1,000/month) and bought a less expensive house ($2500/month) and avoided car payments and credit cards. What's your ratio now?
$5000/$3500 = 1.43
Keeping that above 1 doesn't seem that hard does it?
This rule of thumb, like most rules of thumb, has some problems. For example, it doesn't work during the distribution phase or during the education phase. During the distribution phase, you're pulling money out of your investments, so your ratio would technically be negative. During the education phase, you're not investing anything and may not have any payments either. What if you're a renter? Sure, you don't have a debt payment due, but you've replaced it with a rent payment. And what if you refinanced into a 5-year variable loan for your student loans or a 15 year fixed loan for your mortgage? Those would make your ratio worse despite probably improving your financial situation. Another issue is that in any given month, increasing your investments makes a dramatic and immediate increase in your ratio, but paying down debt might not change the ratio any time soon. Yet another issue applies to military docs and others with a similar commitment who have accepted a time debt (usually with a lower salary) instead of a money debt. These ratios make those folks look better than perhaps they should. Maybe the other ratio would be better. Let's try it.Investment to Interest Ratio
This ratio is the amount of money you invest in a given month compared to the interest you're paying for all of your debts. So if you have a $200K student loan at 6%, the monthly interest would be about $1,000. The interest on a $500,000, 4% mortgage is $1,667. Maybe the interest on cars and credit cards is $100. Total interest is $2,767. If you're saving $2K, your ratio is 0.72. If you're saving $4K, it's 1.45. As you make more or increase your savings rate and pay off your debt, that ratio improves. When you pay off all your debts, it becomes infinite.
I think a ratio of < 0.5 is poor, 0.5 – 2 is fair 2-5 is a good ratio, 5-10 is very good, and > 10 is excellent.
Since we're debt-free now, our ratio is infinite, but just before we paid off the mortgage it was ~100.
I like this ratio a little better in that it rewards you for doing things that minimize the interest paid, like taking a shorter loan term, running the interest rate risk yourself with a variable rate, or refinancing to a lower rate. The ratio also improves as your overall financial situation improves and your debt burden drops. But otherwise, it suffers from the same problems as the other rule of thumb.
What About Extra Payments?
I was asked about whether extra debt payments above and beyond what is required should count on the investment side of the ratios. My response was, “If you have to ask, you probably have too much debt!” But I like the idea of counting them because not only does making extra payments decrease interest and shorten the term of the loan, but it also increases your net worth just like investing does. So if you're investing $4K and paying $4K on the loans like a good little WCI-following, living-like-a-resident young attending, you could have a ratio of 4 or better and climbing.
What do you think? What's your investment to payment ratio? What about your investment to interest ratio? Do you think it's a useful number for a typical attending in the accumulation phase to make? Why or why not?
The back of the napkin math would suggest that we have a savings to interest of 9.4 or so. This doesn’t account for the match I get from my employer, though, which would push this number above 10. This number would have been much lower when we first started and had 200k remaining on loans instead of 67k.
I don’t know that either of these is completely fair, though, because hammering away at your student loans is a good thing. And the more you are working towards paying those off on the first six months as a new attending, the worse either of these numbers and become.
The first one is downright bad for us since we pay $5500 a month in loans. Once that’s gone, both of these numbers will be substantially better.
I like to separate people into really high student loan debt people (debt to income of 1 or greater) and reasonable debt (debt to income of less than 1). Assuming you are in the second group, your metrics work out in a way that it’s likely encouraging good habits. If you are in the really high student loan debt group, you probably don’t want either of your ratios to be great while you pummel your debt.
For me I’ve always considered calculating a wealth accumulation rate (WAR). How much of your monthly income is going towards paying down debt and/or investing. I suggest that number should always be north of 30% for the vast majority of doctors. This encourages both hammering away at debt and saving, regardless of which group you are in.
TPP
This is what we do, a simple WAR. Once we paid off high interest debt, we put extra income towards a taxable account and started paying off the low interest student loans. We keep our WAR around 75% regardless of where the money goes. We don’t have other debt and won’t take on a mortgage until we are debt free.
You’re supposed to use the required payment, but the actual amount you’re paying.
“Always” is a word that should be used carefully. Imagine someone with no debt who is financially independent. Should that person really be saving 30%? If so, why?
That’s fair. Poor word usage. “almost always” should apply 😉
My point stands, though, that I am more interested in the total picture.
Contrarian viewpoint: if you took out, say, $200K to get through med school (let’s pretend we won’t count extra borrowed to live then, and $200K is the actual cost of your MD degree), your attending salary of $150 K (Peds or FP) is a 75% pay out on that investment. Subtract the hopefully $30K or more you’re paying down that $200K and ?$10K or so disability insurance to protect that investment and you have a 50-60% return on that investment.
After all, so what if you have a better ratio because Mom and Dad put you through med school? How does an investor like DJT calculate having borrowed $1 million at 5% to buy an investment paying $100K/ year and sellable some day for the same $1 million (assuming no risk of real estate or market collapse etc)? We’d call him an idiot to only buy what he could afford without borrowing with those sort of returns and interest rates.
And military: I exchanged 7 years for ? $100K tuition and fees. And that was at a gain of $10K more a year pay in residency but loss of maybe $50K a year in attending pay. So I paid a pretty high interest rate! Since my freedom is worth so much and I gave it up for 7 years…
150k is super low even for starting income for FM by the way. 220k+ starting is pretty easy to get.
It’s nothing compared to specialists but a far cry from 150k
If you’re going to calculate numbers like that, you’d better include a factor for opportunity cost of how much you could be making now if you hadn’t gone to med school and what you would have made while in med school.
Investment to payment ratio of 3.19
Payments $3,080
Retirement/529 Savings $9,833
My retirement contributions are quarterly so I had to do some math.
Car note to 401K per month 3:1 ratio. I love that tweet. So true.
I’m not sure about all the ratios and rules of thumbs. Like you said, they all have issues. My goal was to not manage debt but to eliminate it. My ideal interest payment is zero and I achieved that as soon as I possibly could.
More to the point of the original tweet it is amazing how people won’t plan for their future. Especially if it means sacrificing a shiny new object in front of them.
I had a discussion in the O.R. recently. Many nurses contributed zero to their retirement plans. Only one maxed them out. None could tell me what they are invested in or how much they pay in fees. 100% of them could tell me to the penny how much a gallon of gas is at nearby stations and how those prices compare. Even though gas accounts for probably about 2.5% of their budget.
People are strange and interesting. There is still a lot of room for teaching, coaching, and mentoring in this arena.
Rules of thumb are certainly helpful as it serves as a guideline for individuals so that they can see where they fall in their own financial situation.
Like you, my now have an infinite ratio as the debt side of my equation is 0. When I started really attacking my debt a few years ago, I was throwing every available dollar at it and easily had an interest ratio of over 100.
Same here; I have no debt, but a few years ago I vowed never to have a car loan again, so I have a sinking fund of $400/month that will go toward my next car, and in the past was able to put some bonus money in there. It’s grown to > $20K. I will never get into Mercedes S territory at this rate, but I hope at the most am only halfway done with my current car.
Interesting concept. Could be helpful yardstick in the middle portion of the curve/time line.
Pay down your mortgage with addl monthly principal payments
Cuts term of loan dramatically
Awesome post as usual. I am particularly impressed that after so many years of blogging, you always come up with something exciting.
The rule of thumbs can be used as a guide just like most rules, they have exceptions. There should be a number for each stage of financial journey perhaps.
Something like this.
Investment to payment ratio
New attending : Aim for 1
3 years out : Aim for 3
I fall into the new attending category and my investment to payment ratio is less than 1 due to loan payment. I pay extra on the 5.5% loan.
Although I don’t calculate the investment to interest ratio officially, I make the ballpark calculation when making my decisions. Especially since my take on paying low interest loan is different from the majority here.
I maintain low interest loan like one of my student loans that is about 3% . Because of my believe in leverage, my ratio will never be infinite.
This is a new rule of thumb I haven’t seen. I think i’ve found a potential problem with the investment to interest ratio. Someone would have a reasonable ratio with maxing out their tax advantaged accounts and 0% financing on consumer items. I would use this ratio since we don’t engage in 0% financing.
The ratios also break down if you have substantial leverage in real estate investments. The payments or interest on the real estate loans would quickly erode both ratios when you could be saving a substantial amount of money and creating strong positive cash flows from your portfolio.
I like tracking my Passive Income to Cost of Living ratio.
For example, if I know I can live on $4k/month and my passive income is $1k, I’m at 0.25.
I’m (sort of) financially independent at a ratio of 1 (though I’m shooting for closer to 2 to be safe).
And everything in the article about paying off debts, renting vs owning, and saving more is encompassed.
Thanks for the article, it got my thinking 🙂
I would argue for another category being the “accelerated repayment phase.” It seems like something these readers appreciate.
While my actual ratio is, err, bad…I invest 20% minimum (probably between 20-30), but about 50% goes to debt (15 yr mortgage, 5 yr large student loan repayment). So just based on those rough numbers I am at 0.4. But once those loans are payed off the balance shifts significantly. I suppose I either fit in the “extra payments” or the “if you have to ask your debt is too high” categories 🙂
I enjoy the easily digestible ratios you include for your rules of thumb. They make it so simple that a person of any financial background can understand the basic premise you’re trying to convey: there is no clear cut answer on how to balance your investing or debt repayment prioritization. Instead, there are shades of gray which can be mapped within ranges to give you a rough idea of what the best decision for your situation might be.
My wife finishes her residency next year and will begin working as an attending. Thankfully her debt burden isn’t onerous and will be manageable for our budget. In the meantime, we’ve maximizes our retirement account contributions and funded a house down payment account that holds a conservative mix of bonds and stocks. We use Betterment, which automatically reallocated the funds as we near our time to consider buying a house.
I enjoy the site and will use your simplicity as a guide in my own financial blogging. I think by making it approachable to all and still informative, you stand to help the most people, which is my goal.
A bit late to the party here but I do appreciate these types of analysis. Taking a fresh look at the same old numbers gives some additional perspective. Our investment to interest ratio is an 11 mostly because of rock bottom interest rates. The investment to debt payment ratio is >1 but I find this number challenging to use. We have significant other recurring charges such as childcare that a metric like this misses. Maybe an investment to monthly expense ratio would work better…but I think this is just another way of saying “savings rate”.
I once came up with the hemoglobin to potassium ratio. All I can say is you really don’t want it to be a 1.