By Josh Katzowitz, WCI Content Director
About a year ago, with the help of 20 fellow white coat investors, I created a new (hypothetical) investment called the White Coat Investor Fund (WCIF) to see how it would perform against VTSAX (the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund) and FSKAX (the Fidelity Total Market Index Fund).
Here’s how I spawned WCIF: During the week of WCICON23, I asked a slew of attendees and speakers to give me their favorite individual stock—whether it’s something they invest in or whether it’s just a company they happen to admire. What they chose made up our pseudo-index fund.
Nobody was allowed to pick any stock that was in the top 10 of VTSAX at the time. That meant Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, NVIDIA, two different classes of Alphabet, Tesla, Berkshire Hathaway, Facebook, and Exxon Mobile were ineligible to be used in WCIF.
WCI Founder Dr. Jim Dahle had some concerns—he said it was basically like gambling (or The Stock Game) because it was a short-term exercise and that I wasn’t accounting for expenses or risk—but we basically ignored him and went forward with the exercise. Why? Because sometimes when we write about personal finance, we should have fun, even if it means getting some readers mad at us.
Here are the 20 individual stocks that WCICON attendees chose to live in WCIF and their explanations for why they were picked.
The Walt Disney Company (DIS): “They always rip me off when you go to their park, so they’re probably making a profit. Plus, their Disney+ app is so brilliant.”
International Business Machines Corp. (IBM): “IBM is one of the oldest stocks on the exchange. Let’s throw in some old-school flavor into the WCI Fund.”
New York Times Company (NYT): “I still love newspapers. And I think the NYT has proven that it knows how to increase online subscribers to continue bringing in new readers (and their money).”
General Electric Company (GE): “It’s the pinnacle of stocks. That’s all you need. It will never go bankrupt. People were saying it would 10 years ago. But that’s all trash.”
Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU): “The reason I started wearing their stuff is because I’m very tall and they have long stuff. They’re narrow, but they fit me.”
Masimo Corporation (MASI): “They make ICU monitoring devices. They took off during COVID. I bought shares for $80 five years ago. Now it’s worth about $180. Fingers crossed for another pandemic, and I will be sitting pretty with my 10 shares.”
Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc. (DKS): “We have two boys, and we basically keep Dick’s afloat. The boys always need clothes or a new basketball or a new water bottle or a new something.”
Target Corporation (TGT): “It makes shopping so much easier and so much more convenient. It’s more expensive than Walmart, and they basically have the same stuff. And yet I still go to Target.”
Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN): “It’s something I understand. You’re not supposed to invest in stuff you don’t understand. I understand the culture. I understand their business model [of providing season ski passes to several different resorts all under the same account]. I think it’s a good idea. I’ve watched it just take over in the ski culture. A competitor has emerged, and the rest of the resorts that didn’t get purchased by Vail banded together to counter it. But Vail is first to market.”
Adverum Biotechnologies Inc. (ADVM): “The technology is really intriguing. It’s a gene therapy that is a permanent fix for macular degeneration. For people who have gotten it, it’s still working three years later. I found it compelling, and the need is there. They tried it for diabetic retinopathy, and a patient went blind. Since then, the stock has plummeted. But the potential is there. It just got some bad PR.”
The Coca-Cola Company (KO): “Everybody in the world loves Coca-Cola. Everybody in the world sings that they love Coca-Cola. No matter what’s happening in the world, everybody loves an ice-cold Coke.”
Moody’s Corporation (MCO): “They’re still a toll-taker for the financial industry. They’re still essential.”
National Storage Affiliates Trust (NSA): “We have an immense need for storing things. When the economy goes bad, people lose houses and move into apartments or their parents need to downsize. What do you do with all of that stuff? You put it in storage. When the economy is going up, people are buying more stuff. What do you do with that stuff? You put it in storage.”
Walmart Inc. (WMT): “They’re a safe bet. They’re getting into healthcare, and people are going to buy cheap groceries.”
McKesson Corp (MCK): “They’re recession-proof for the most part. People need meds. The value for them keeps going up because the prices on meds keep going up.”
Paramount Global (PARA): “They’re just gobbling up a lot of content from HBO and Netflix that actually belongs to Paramount. They’re getting a larger amount of the market, and they’re hurting their competition.”
Palantir Technologies (PLTR): “They’re into data mining, and they have a lot of government contracts. They’ve opened up their technology to private investment. If you want to spy on someone or you want technology to data mine, that’s basically the company.”
Roblox Corporation (RBLX): “My kids have loved it for years. I imagine they’ll eventually outgrow it, but there’s always a new generation of kids that will discover it and then love it themselves.”
Chewy, Inc. (CHWY): “Oh my goodness, we spend so much money buying our dogs medicine, toys, and treats through Chewy and getting it delivered right to our house. It’s Amazon for pets. They just make it so convenient.”
Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON): “Like so many others, we bought a Peloton during the pandemic, and like so many others, it now just sits there in our basement, hardly ever getting used. How high did it go up at one point? To, like, $150? (Editor’s Note: its highest stock price was $162.72.) Well, you can get the stock pretty cheap now. Peloton continues to survive, and I think getting it now at a low price is a good value.”
How Did WCFI Perform After a Year?
The stock market was fantastic in 2023. The S&P 500 nearly set record highs (and it, along with the NASDAQ, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average did set those records in 2024). The S&P 500, NASDAQ, and the Dow Jones rose 24.23%, 43.42%, and 13.8%, respectively, in 2023.
Sadly, WCIF couldn’t outperform VTSAX or FSKAX. So much of the stock market’s recent records is because of the Magnificent Seven, all of which are in the top 10 of the total stock market funds in Vanguard and Fidelity. Thanks to my limitations on what could be in the WCIF, it was going to be nearly impossible to beat VTSAX or FSKAX, because of how powerful those seven stocks have proven to be.
And though we had a rather profitable year overall, we didn’t come all that close to competing with those two index funds.
We gave it a good run, though, especially in Q1 of 2023, when we actually beat both index funds. We also had a solid Q4 with a nice rally. Sandwiched in between that . . . well, I wouldn’t call it a disaster, but things did not go well.
There was plenty of turbulence this year with Disney (its tangles with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, its criticized succession plan, and the attempt by two activist investors to infiltrate the board). Somehow, Disney was up slightly on the year, so that wasn’t a big drag on the success.
The big winners in the WCIF in 2023 were Roblox (up 58.1%), General Electric (up 55.3%), the New York Times (up 49.8% (yay for journalism!)), and Moody’s (up 37.8%). The only two major losers were Chewy (down 37.8%) and Masimo (down 21.6%).
Overall, I’m pleased with our performance, and I’m officially happy to announce the WCIF experience is complete.
But let’s revisit the point of why I undertook this exercise in the first place. I wanted to answer my own suspicions about whether passionate white coat investors could do a better job of equity investing than those managers who run two of the best index funds in existence. I figured we wouldn’t, and I was right.
From interviewing the WCIers who gave me their choices, transcribing their quotes, researching all the prices, updating all the percentages, ignoring Jim’s criticisms, and writing two columns and two updates on how the fund was performing, I spent probably 20 hours on this project in the last 12 months.
Sure, we made money. But it turns out I would have done so much better financially if I had just poured my money into those index funds. And to complete that task, it would have taken me less than five minutes.
There’s a lesson there.
Money Song of the Week
My family experienced a monumental occasion earlier this month when my son and I drove seven hours roundtrip so he could see his first-ever punk rock show. It was NOFX’s last ever stop in Texas, and somehow, I convinced him to ride with me so we could watch one of punk’s most influential bands of the last three decades play one of its final shows.
But today, let’s dissect a song from one of the concert openers, Lagwagon, which had a solid run in the 1990s punk scene and scored a minor hit with the song “May 16” in 1998.
Four years prior to that, Lagwagon released “Know It All,” a tune that touches on the well-worn topic of fans who decry a band for “selling out,” even though “selling out” could, you know, allow that band to make a living and afford to stock a refrigerator.
As Joey Cape sings,
“[College radio is] supposed to serve as a means to expose new bands without prejudice/But it makes no sense/Safe harbor for the underground/'Til the alternative becomes the popular sound.
“The bands are good 'til they make enough cash to eat food/And get a pad/Then they sold out and their music's cliché/Because talent's exclusive to bands without pay.”
Selling out was certainly a controversial topic in the punk scene in the ‘90s. NOFX famously never joined a major label and put out its own records. That’s probably why it never got nearly as famous as bands like Green Day or The Offspring. Lagwagon never struck a major label deal either, which is probably why most of the people who remember Lagwagon are now in their 40s and 50s and can’t mosh for more than a minute without exhausting themselves and why Green Day is still playing stadium shows.
All of that is fine with Cape.
As he told PunkNews.org in 2004, “I believe every band sells out as soon as their recording is marketed and sold, but that is how music reaches people. So be it. I never cared how popular a band was or who was marketing or manufacturing a record. I only consider the music. I think it is sad when people have any other criteria to choose their music. It's also sad when music is pure marketing like boy bands. Some bands see a major label as their only chance to reach more people. It is not an absurd argument. We are fine with what we have accomplished. I never desired fame, so Fat [Wreck Chord Records, NOFX's independent label] has been perfect for me. We have had as much exposure as I ever wanted.”
Ah, but can you make a living solely from being in a band like Lagwagon?
“I can now and have been for 10 years,” he said. “Things will change in the next few years. I don't know what I will do. That's OK. I have [had] a very good run. I will never complain.”
More information here:
Every Money Song of the Week Ever Published
Tweet of the Week
Hopefully, everybody stayed safe during the solar eclipse earlier this month and didn’t look directly at the sun. But if you did . . . you know who to call.
Optometrists right now… pic.twitter.com/9kkauoYtpy
— Douglas A. Boneparth (@dougboneparth) April 8, 2024
Was this WCIF project doomed to fail from the very beginning? What individual stocks would you have included?
[EDITOR'S NOTE: For comments, complaints, suggestions, or plaudits, email Josh Katzowitz at [email protected].]
ha Josh were you a skater back in the day? A lot of my skater friends loved Lagwagon, I think they gained fame from being in a Tony Hawk video game. I guess that’s not considered selling out…
I think I mentioned before when you started WCIF that you should have had 30 stocks. There is a myth that 30 random stocks is enough diversification to match the volatility of the total US stock market. comes from a Fisher and Laurie paper in 1970. it would have been interesting to see if the WCIF might have matched at least the total stock market volatility better. Maybe we should do that going forward!
Nope. Was never a skater. Actually, Lagwagon, NOFX, Screeching Weasel, etc., those are the bands that I never got into in high school or college. I was more of a ska-punk guy: Mighty Mighty Bosstones, Voodoo Glow Skulls, Rancid, MU330, Pietasters, Mustard Plug.
Most of those bands never “sold out,” though MMB maybe kinda did. But I never considered “selling out” to be such a bad thing. I think Green Day’s “Dookie” is a 90s punk masterpiece.
Never would I have thought Lagwagon would make it to WCI.
Interestingly in 2014-2015 Joey started One Week Records as part of his own retirement plan.
Who says you can’t mix finance and ’90s punk?
For perspective, vanguard’s oldest active fund VWELX – the wellington fund – returned 7.63% in 2023 before fees! Josh, I think you should take this fund to BlackRock and start gathering assets.
This would be a good post to keep bumping up every year to see the performance difference over a long period of time.
Don’t encourage him.
Josh,
The WCIF is fun! I understand Jim’s reservations. Even if you do beat the market, is it because you are smarter than Wall Street or is it just plain ole luck? Here’s my biggest gripes: 1. Short time frame: 1 year just isn’t much time. I think 5 or even 10 years would be the minimum you would need to draw conclusions on this. Twenty five to thirty years would be much better. Will any of us still be following along at that time? If your portfolio does well will it prove anything other than the fact that one sample of stocks picked one time did well? 2. 20 stocks too few: As Rikki stated, I do think that a few more stocks (say 30) would be nice. 3. Elimination of the best stocks in the world! You were not allowed to choose from the top 10 stocks in VTSAX. They are of course the largest stocks in VTSAX because they are the best companies in the universe. It’s pretty hard to win a game when your A team sits on the bench. Thanks for the entertaining content.
Well, then, maybe I’ll do an update on it for the two-year anniversary in 2025. I’m kinda thinking a 25-year anniversary column might not be in the cards, though.
Yeah, the reason I didn’t want people picking the top 10 of VTSAX was because I thought it would be too boring and easy. Which is probably why this experiment is doomed to fail.
So all the stocks were bought at the same time. You didn’t wait for them to drop before considering a purchase?
We bought Disney when it dropped significantly after an earnings report. It went up 40%. Did the same with Tesla.
Buy low.
Are you seriously arguing for buying individual stocks using your crystal ball to “buy them low”? Are you familiar with the data about how well active mutual fund managers are able to do that? If those professionals with way more resources than you can’t do it, why do you think you’re going to be able to?
I’m not saying that.
I AM saying that if you’re going to buy an individual stock as a long-term investment, which is what this article is about, you should at least do it when the stock is not at a 52 week high. And preferably after it goes down a significant amount due to Market overreaction. Meaning day traders.
I have done quite well for myself. I only have about 3% of our Investment Portfolio in individual stocks at any one time . Those individual stocks have Out performed the S&P 500.
Having said that, 97% of our investment is in index funds, bonds, and other conservative investment opportunities.
Mostly because I’m aware of the studies you talk about.
But when I see a good opportunity like Tesla at $110, because people are reacting to something stupid musk said, I am not going to pass it up. (Sold at $240).
You’re entitled to opinion but don’t demean mine.
Market “overreaction” can only be identified positively in retrospect.
If you’re good enough to identify when the market misprices something and can beat the market by taking advantage of that information, why are you only doing it with 3% of your portfolio? Is it because deep down inside you know you probably just got lucky? Tesla is currently at $180. Is that the right price? Overpriced? Underpriced? How would you know? It was $147 two weeks ago. Was that price right? Surely nothing significantly changed at the company in the last two weeks did it? Is it going to be higher or lower in two weeks?
Picking stocks is hard. I have great respect for those who can do it long-term well enough to beat the market. Heck, I’m impressed if they can do it before fees in a tax protected account. Doing it after fees in a taxable account is even harder. If I was beating the market picking stocks I know it would be hard for me to decide if I was lucky or good. But either way it would probably be worth opening a hedge fund and doing it with billions instead of just my measly little portfolio.
Again, not recommending anyone else do this.
But if you watch the news closely, and understand which stocks are volatile based upon news reports, you can buy stock in a very good company at a more reasonable price.
And I don’t sell the stock until it is eligible for long-term capital gains tax, at least 12 months, if I sell it all.
And I only invest 3% this way because my wife would kill me if I risked more. Literally.
Measure your returns accurately (including taxes, fees and the value of your time) and if you keep beating the market tell your wife I said you could boost it up to 5-10%.
I’m retired from medicine so our income is pretty low.
We don’t pay anything on long-term capital gains. 0% as long as we keep it under a certain amount. Thanks to the tax cut and jobs act. (Damn shame it’s going to expire.)
But thanks for the advice. Appreciate it.