Forum Replies Created
Seems like the anxiety comes from two sources.
•The mortgage debt is pretty hefty for opting for zero income.
• Then the AA in the taxable and IRA
Question, how would you feel with no mortgage?
How much equity do you have in the house and are you staying put? I think you need a plan to get rid of the mortgage (not 15 years). The house is consumption and the mortgage complicates the emotions.
• The reason I think that’s important: the lack of clarity of NW. $5-7 is a swing of $2mm. That is a 40% upside. Is that +/- $2mm. As long as you keep that mortgage you will be uneasy about turning off the income.
• Payoff the mortgage and stash $200k. You can do it out of earnings or taxable. Now the sequence risk is a lot more palatable. 70/30 or 60/40 won’t matter. Looks like you won the race, just don’t trip at the finish line.
• Did anyone tell you that sequence risk starts over every year? You can’t control when the markets go on hold for a period. You only control when decide to stop going to work.
• Consider 60/30/10 (stock/bonds/cash) You will have plenty of cash to ride out market volatility.Click to expand…
Wow, great advice! Yes, the reason for the 5-7 is as follows. We have about 6M in stocks/bonds/cash and it is mostly stocks.(84% stocks) The house is worth 1.5M and we owe 675K so that is another 800k but it is not something I plan on spending for at least 10 years. (House not really an asset, I know, but not a piece of turd either)
We have been paying down heavy on the mortgage, with the idea that as soon as that is gone we would be done. We have also been increasing bonds/cash but I really like the way you spell it out here. Frankly I just woke up at 0450 to go to work and I was thinking: Tim is right! If I had no mortgage and 200k in cash the I could stay home all day and work on my side gig (which makes some $) and eat breakfast with my mother-in-law (who lives with us) and play with my dogs or jump in the car and get on the water and watch the sunrise on the ocean from a kayak while getting a workout and trying to catch some blue fish for dinner. Ok ok. gotta go to work.
Yes, don’t trip at finish line! Yes, thank you!October 16, 2019 at 2:21 am MST in reply to: What if anything are you doing to mitigate sequence of returns risk? #253922
I’m so sorry for your loss Tangler.
Actually, given your tone, maybe you just mean it was a busy call. If so, well, I’m still sorry, but not as sorry.Click to expand…
Oh, yikes, yeah just a busy call. My brother is fine. Just sick of general surgery. Sorry! That does kinda put things in perspective. We are ridiculously fortunate. I mean, in medicine unless in a war zone we are not likely to actually die while on call. Sorry for the confusion.October 16, 2019 at 2:08 am MST in reply to: What if anything are you doing to mitigate sequence of returns risk? #253921Liked by childay
First, lots of people, even FIRErs don’t really need to mitigate it at all.
They’re still going to have some income coming in from side gigs for instance, so that mitigates it.
Or they are already at such a low withdrawal rate (2-3% etc) that sequence of returns risk basically no longer exists.
Or they can simply return to work if it rears its ugly head.
The “One More Year” syndrome often gets people who would have had to worry about SOR risk into a place where they really don’t have to because their portfolio got so much larger.
But for those who have “just enough” to retire I think there are four basic strategies, which can be used in any combination:
1) Reduce the stock to bond ratio. Sometimes called a “bond tent”. You can increase them again later in retirement if you like.
2) Put a few years of spending in cash. 2? 3? 5? 10? This way if sequence of returns risk rears its ugly head you can simply leave your investments alone and spend the cash.
3) Annuitize enough to cover your needs and simply leave the investments alone (not buying your wants) if SOR risk shows up
4) Spend less, downsize, move to Central America etc if SOR risk shows upClick to expand…
Awesomeness! The man himself! Wow, AWESOME! Thanks!
Yes! My brother is a surgeon. He got killed on call last night. He and I both have one more year syndrome.
These suggestions are wonderful. Thank you! This forum is wonderful!October 15, 2019 at 4:40 pm MST in reply to: What if anything are you doing to mitigate sequence of returns risk? #253888
What is your expected withdrawal rate?Click to expand…
I should have put spending and withdrawl rate in post. We spend around 100-120k per year. Adding health insurance lets say 150k. At a withdrawl rate of 3% that is a requirement of 5M. Thanks Peds, always a short succinct perfect question!October 15, 2019 at 4:32 pm MST in reply to: What if anything are you doing to mitigate sequence of returns risk? #253887
Increasing bonds and paying debt sounds like a great idea.
What is your spending going to look like? If you are going to have a 2% withdrawal rate then who cares and you can do whatever. But if you are planning on closer to 4% then some cation would be warranted.
Any other upcoming big expenses?
Kids- college, weddings?
Major vacations?Click to expand…
Great input. No upcoming major expenses (that I know of). No kids. No weddings
Major Vacations and spending………well, those are talking points with spouse. I have calculated our spending in the past and it was at about 100-120 but that was counting paying extra on mortgage.
I cannot imagine needing more than 150k even with paying for extra vacations and for health insurance (20-30k per year). I guess that is 3% of 5M so I think frankly we are pretty much able to pull the trigger.
I will be done in 2-10 (most probably at 3.5 years = 50, has nice sound to it).
I just want to be careful. I am not one of those people who will go crazy without doing clinical work. I have a side hustle. I have lots of valuable activities outside of work.
Work has been good to me but I am kinda ready. I will eventually get annoyed and tell the office people to go do the anatomically impossible but I need to be sure I am bullet proof or as close to bullet proof as is possible.October 15, 2019 at 4:26 pm MST in reply to: What if anything are you doing to mitigate sequence of returns risk? #253884
FLP you mentioned putting bonds into taxable account if IRA bond choices stink. So, my question: What vanguard bond funds do you like for taxable accounts? Anyone have some vanguard bond funds they like for taxable accounts? Thanks!
Sorry man! That really stinks. Sorry sorry sorry. I hate if for you! Hang in there.
I know this is a security threat too but I actually scanned a copy of all the cards in my wallet and saved to a folder in a password protected cloud file so that if I have the same issue I can know what to replace. Again, hang in there.
How nice would our world be if people would just follow the golden rule? Sad.
I have been fighting with the forum computer demons (finally I can log in) and I have been reading this thread but unable to post until now.
So a few thoughts:
one: It is fun to “guess” what the market will do, but beyond foolish to think anyone has precision when it comes to timing.
Two: we are flawed overconfident pattern seeking primates – Most forum folks understand this (a few? perhaps not)
Three: Very few can pick long term winning stocks and funds, so few that it is incredibly foolish to try (see point two)
Four: EntrepreneurMD, you arrogantly posted a “guaranteed” prediction a few weeks ago. It turned out to be totally wrong.
Now you come on here and expect me to believe you picked something that gave: “25-30 fold returns over a decade” and you say humble stuff like: “Those who know how to do their research can go and see which funds have done this.” Do you think we are all on drugs? See point two.
Do I think the market will drop 10-50% some time in the next 5 years? Sure, but I have no way of predicting this, nor do I think anyone can with certainty. If it drops a lot will I buy some index funds while on sale, sure, but I don’t know a lot of things and thus I have a good chance of goofing it up.
I don’t know IF (certainty) it will drop. I don’t know when it will drop. I don’t know how much it will drop. I don’t know when it will come back up and how long it will take to come back up.
Most folks (myself inclusive) with a 30 year investment horizon, should just buy VTSAX etc. when they get money and ignore the noise. Keep the AA constant by rebalancing, have an investment policy statement blah blah blah.
I post this not to pick on you brother but just to spell it out for the newish folks out there. New dude, guess what? You ain’t Warren Buffet!
I was having issues, all kinds of issues but somehow I got back in on my mac. Seems to sorta work now.
Awesomeness! I love my two little doggies! unconditional love! Take your wife and your dog, and lock both in the trunk of a car, then wait two hours and open the trunk and see who is happy to see you. Wife will kill you with a tire iron. Doggie will lick your face.
FI = Freedom
freedom to do whatever you want.
i won’t eject
Instead i plan on gliding down slowly
I am already slowly eliminating the bs that adds no value and increasing my time doing valuable activities.
Exercise, reading, time outside, kayak fishing, cooking, increased.
Weekends, nights, commuting to work in traffic = decreased.
At work: treating patients like i want to be treated and teaching more; stressing less about silly stuff
Also minimizing time in bs meetings and with the “office people” who like to make rules and send emails but don’t do a lot of meaningful clinical work.
In 4 years I turn 50 and i might stop completely but who knows. I provide good care, and do it on my terms.
I like having control.
I think a paid for mortgage + 6-7M should be plenty. It is impossible to know with certainty. But worth trying to figure out as many of the variables as possible and also important to understand the that a big key in my plan will involve being nimble and agile and rolling with the waves. The boat is unlikely to sink but we may need to steer into the wind and be careful in the storm. I will wear a personal floatation device and make sure the VHF radio and personal locator beacon have fully charged batteries. The float plan is ready! Bring on the voyage!
Yep, homes are a hassle. Rentals a hassle in many ways too but we should probably have a WCI checklist (probably exists) for home purchases.
i plan on being in the house a min of 10 years and thus it should be ok financially. Stable job, large pile of cash, high net worth, insurance etc = all will be ok.
I had an inspection but i don’t really think this stuff was totally obvious. There was probably some small print etc. but i will ask
thanks for the supportive messages.
TBSeptember 24, 2019 at 8:21 am MST in reply to: Joy of home ownership. 2 floods in less than 6 months. RENT = SMART #249157
Awesomeness! Very cool! I got married 9 years ago (eloped) and a minister in Asheville NC Married my wife and I. He read a poem about our love being a tiny acorn (small and fragile) that would grow stronger and larger with time if we nurtured it like an acorn into a big oak tree. We actually picked some acorns on our wedding day with the intention of planting them but I am embarrassed to say I have no idea where they are now (several moves later, etc.) I don’t know if they ever were planted…….think we might have planted some but…….a little sad really. I think the poor acorn suffered from work overload etc.
Anyway, the acorn and investing analogy. I like it.