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Time the Market with me!

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  • Avatar Infinity 
    Participant
    Status: Physician
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    Joined: 05/25/2019

    But I would be interested if there were those who would hold off waiting to see what happens with Mr. Market.

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    5% drop is not very exciting for me. I will just continue my monthly contributions as usual.

    When it drops 10-15%, then I will jump in with my reserves.

    Let us see who can time the market?

    (my guess is no one can)

     

    #236569 Reply
    Liked by Lordosis
    fatlittlepig fatlittlepig 
    Participant
    Status: Physician
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    Joined: 01/26/2017

    But I would be interested if there were those who would hold off waiting to see what happens with Mr. Market.

    Click to expand…

    5% drop is not very exciting for me. I will just continue my monthly contributions as usual.

    When it drops 10-15%, then I will jump in with my reserves.

    Let us see who can time the market?

    (my guess is no one can)

     

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    Well entrepreneur md can time it perfectly. LOL

    #236592 Reply
    Liked by Tangler
    Avatar EntrepreneurMD 
    Participant
    Status: Physician
    Posts: 401
    Joined: 06/10/2019

    Funny you should bring that up.

    Tomorrow will very likely offer a better buying opportunity than today was. I’m not telling you this, the VIX, gold, bitcoin and the 10 year note are speaking to you!

    Lordosis, you are too young to have been materially thru a major recession/depression. I recommend you wait for a downturn to stabilize before taking the plunge, lest you get caught buying early into a major recession and wasting your ammunition ideally saved for the depth of the correction. Risk management strategy. You’re most likely okay this time around as it’s likely not the big one in the short term.

    #236604 Reply
    Liked by adventure
    Lordosis Lordosis 
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    Status: Physician
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    Joined: 02/11/2019

    It might just as likely offer a worse opportunity to buy. We shall see.

    “Never let your sense of morals prevent you from doing what is right.”

    #236607 Reply
    Liked by Tangler
    MPMD MPMD 
    Participant
    Status: Physician
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    Joined: 05/01/2017

    i’ve said it before but i think the whole wci community would change in interesting ways in a recession!

    #236609 Reply
    Craigy Craigy 
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    Status: Spouse
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    Joined: 09/16/2016

    i’ve said it before but i think the whole wci community would change in interesting ways in a recession!

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    It’s very easy to say “stay the course” when all you’ve known is a bull market.

    LEVEL 1 WCI FORUM MEMBER.

    #236611 Reply
    Avatar Dusn 
    Participant
    Status: Physician
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    Joined: 01/02/2018
    Splash Refinancing Bonus

    Timing the market gets a bad rap.  If you’re friends with some key politicians, in either China or the US, you could make a fair bit of money timing the market with this fabricated volatility if you get a little bit of forewarning.

    #236614 Reply
    CordMcNally CordMcNally 
    Participant
    Status: Physician
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    Joined: 01/03/2017

    i’ve said it before but i think the whole wci community would change in interesting ways in a recession!

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    It would certainly be a fun case study!

    “But investing isn’t about beating others at their game. It’s about controlling yourself at your own game.”
    ― Benjamin Graham, The Intelligent Investor

    #236616 Reply
    Liked by Tangler
    Avatar Anne 
    Participant
    Status: Physician
    Posts: 1240
    Joined: 11/07/2017

    The biggest problem with trying to time the market as I see it is that it ties your personal decision making to the fluctuations of the market and causes you unnecessary stress. “Darn it! I should have invested last week/last month/last year…is now the trough or should I see what happens in another day/week/month/year”. So much wasted mental energy that could have been spent enjoying your family, working on a hobby, working another shift for more investment material, etc.

    I have almost always just invested on autopilot without looking at the market. The few times I have tried to second guess when to invest I have made myself feel worse on average, not better. And the whole point of money is to make life better/less stressful. So far it’s working out.

    #236631 Reply
    Zzyzx Zzyzx 
    Participant
    Status: Physician
    Posts: 200
    Joined: 09/24/2018

    It might just as likely offer a worse opportunity to buy. We shall see.

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    spidey sense tingling…

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/05/us-treasury-designates-china-as-a-currency-manipulator.html

     

    It’s psychosomatic. You need a lobotomy. I’ll get a saw.

    #236632 Reply
    Liked by Craigy, Lordosis
    Avatar Tangler 
    Participant
    Status: Physician
    Posts: 384
    Joined: 08/23/2018

    I am guilty of sometimes buying on dips. It worked out nicely at end of last dec, but i know it is luck.
    I have also bought at peaks.

    The best time to buy = when you have some $.
    The best time to sell = when you need some $.

    You just received some $, so great time to buy!

    18 years is plenty of time. I bet it will be higher than today, in 18 years, but who knows.

    >15 years = plenty of time

    I was busy at work and never looked at market. Pointless for me to look, that money is for 30 years from now.

    #236633 Reply
    Avatar EntrepreneurMD 
    Participant
    Status: Physician
    Posts: 401
    Joined: 06/10/2019

    It might just as likely offer a worse opportunity to buy. We shall see.

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    I will denounce my entire market timing investment strategy if I was wrong on tomorrow. I’ve gotten really good at this. Not sure about magnitude though, but estimating DOW down a few hundred points at some point tomorrow, expected at opening.

    Awaiting somebody’s “just lucky” response tomorrow, with an awkward LOL attached.

    #236638 Reply
    Lordosis Lordosis 
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    Status: Physician
    Posts: 2186
    Joined: 02/11/2019

    Just checked and post market is down another 2%. Are you saying on top of that or from market close today?

    “Never let your sense of morals prevent you from doing what is right.”

    #236641 Reply
    Liked by adventure
    Avatar EntrepreneurMD 
    Participant
    Status: Physician
    Posts: 401
    Joined: 06/10/2019

    To wherever the stabilization point is.

    A sharp fall in the Yuan historically messes with the US market in a major way. That’s why we hate it. Logically a contagion of currency devaluation by other countries provides the fuel for future fears into the mix of problems (the Asian economies heavily dependent on China will most likely follow suit). The US market does tend to recover reasonably quickly though to the Chinese manipulation, though this one is more extreme and I just worry about other factors at this point (poor market response to a Fed rate cut, low treasury yields and inversion, age of the bull, election uncertainty etc.). I believe about 95% of Fortune 500 CEO’s surveyed expect the next full recession to occur within the next 1-4 years. They could be wrong or they could be right but individually their companies are microcosms of the economy’s ability to expand and employ.

    Just trying to help you optimize your entry strategy in the future. You did ask for timing after all.

    I know you don’t agree with me on much, heck you didn’t even believe in my existence until proven. But I would surely not give up the opportunity to learn from someone with whom I don’t agree with personally, politically or otherwise. That would only hurt me.

    #236663 Reply
    Liked by mapplebum
    Lordosis Lordosis 
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    Status: Physician
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    Joined: 02/11/2019

    I am not arguing with you. It is very likely that the market will continue to drop. But where does it stop? When do you sell? Missed that boat already. Hindsight is great.

    Just because a stranger on the internet says another stranger is legit does not really count as proof in my book. I would say I don’t care and that echo rooms are boring but trying to convince people to time the market is bad news.

    “Never let your sense of morals prevent you from doing what is right.”

    #236668 Reply

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