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Time the Market with me!

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  • Lordosis Lordosis 
    Participant
    Status: Physician
    Posts: 2186
    Joined: 02/11/2019

    I have a very generous grandparent who gave me a gift for giving him his 4th great-grandchild.  He wants us to use it as we see fit.  No strings attached.

    My wife and I decided it should go to their 529.

    I have his 529 invested aggressively 70/30 US/international as he has 18 years to go.

    I peeked at the market and saw we had a couple of bad days and today is looking much worse.

    My plan is to put the money in as soon as it is “digitized” which would be today if I can get to the bank. I might do it today anyways an pay myself back when I can.   I see an opportunity to buy low right now.  Who knows what tomorrow will bring.  Strong rebound? Further decline? Either way I expect today’s value to be much lower then that in 18 years.

    But I would be interested if there were those who would hold off waiting to see what happens with Mr. Market.

    Comments/ Questions welcome!

    “Never let your sense of morals prevent you from doing what is right.”

    #236436 Reply
    Liked by adventure, Tangler
    Avatar ticker 
    Participant
    Status: Physician
    Posts: 168
    Joined: 08/14/2016

    All the headlines I see today would indicate the market is about to dive, all indicators are for a huge correction, the rich are selling off their stocks, China won’t trade with us, Russia wants to kill us, and we’re on the verge of civil war over gun policy.

    So I’d just invest today.

    Avatar Peds 
    Moderator
    Status: Physician
    Posts: 4697
    Joined: 01/08/2016
    Comments/ Questions welcome!

    Click to expand…

    its really irrelevant.

    triad triad 
    Participant
    Status: Dentist, Small Business Owner
    Posts: 279
    Joined: 04/29/2016

    down 2% already today.  sounds like a good day to dump some muni bonds and exchange for vtwax.  I need to join a market timers anonymous group 😉

    #236442 Reply
    CordMcNally CordMcNally 
    Participant
    Status: Physician
    Posts: 3059
    Joined: 01/03/2017

    In 18 years it really won’t make a difference and you won’t remember anyway.

    “But investing isn’t about beating others at their game. It’s about controlling yourself at your own game.”
    ― Benjamin Graham, The Intelligent Investor

    q-school q-school 
    Participant
    Status: Physician
    Posts: 2640
    Joined: 05/07/2017

    In 18 years it really won’t make a difference and you won’t remember anyway.

    Click to expand…

    some of us might not be around in 18 years!

    we still have responsibilities beyond the grave.

    🙂

     

    #236445 Reply
    triad triad 
    Participant
    Status: Dentist, Small Business Owner
    Posts: 279
    Joined: 04/29/2016
    Earnest refinancing bonus

    In 18 years it really won’t make a difference and you won’t remember anyway.

    Click to expand…

    true, but it does fulfill a psychological need to take advantage of a bad day.

    #236450 Reply
    Liked by Tangler, Lordosis
    CordMcNally CordMcNally 
    Participant
    Status: Physician
    Posts: 3059
    Joined: 01/03/2017
    true, but it does fulfill a psychological need to take advantage of a bad day.

    Click to expand…

    A short term one that they won’t remember but I do agree with your earlier post that today seems as good a day as any.

    “But investing isn’t about beating others at their game. It’s about controlling yourself at your own game.”
    ― Benjamin Graham, The Intelligent Investor

    #236452 Reply
    Liked by Tangler, Lordosis
    MPMD MPMD 
    Participant
    Status: Physician
    Posts: 2608
    Joined: 05/01/2017

    how would buying like 5% off the the all time market high be considered “buying low?”

    Avatar EntrepreneurMD 
    Participant
    Status: Physician
    Posts: 401
    Joined: 06/10/2019

    With an 18 year timeline, I’d wait for the end of the next recession, may or may not have already started. I’d rather get in at DOW 15K (figurative number, meaning wherever the next major recession lands).

    You can buy on this dip, but there is ongoing concern about the world economies weakening further (looks like the trend). Fed was forced to lower rates, I think they’re worried as heck about the treasury inversion correlating to an economic recession (in the context of worldwide economic weakness and trade wars) and want to soften the blow of the next inevitable recession.

    In the past I would buy on the dips like this one, now I prefer to sell when a new high is reached until world economic news is more benign or the major recession occurs, forcing every nation to back off the trade wars.

    I won’t argue for my 3% CD’s right now, but it sure beats the growing risk for -50% at this time.

    I wish you well with your investment decision.

    #236462 Reply
    Liked by Tangler
    Lordosis Lordosis 
    Participant
    Status: Physician
    Posts: 2186
    Joined: 02/11/2019
    its really irrelevant.

    Click to expand…

    Absolutely it is.  I actually already put the transaction through.  I guess I could cancel it before 4pm but I was more interested in flushing out some market timers 😛

    In 18 years it really won’t make a difference and you won’t remember anyway.

    Click to expand…

    True it will not matter.  I may remember if there is a big market move but it will just reinforce how little it matters.

     

    how would buying like 5% off the the all time market high be considered “buying low?”

    Click to expand…

    Hopefully this is the new low.  The market spends a lot of time within 5% of its high.

    You can buy on this dip, but there is ongoing concern about the world economies weakening further (looks like the trend). Fed was forced to lower rates, I think they’re worried as heck about the treasury inversion correlating to an economic recession (in the context of worldwide economic weakness and trade wars) and want to soften the blow of the next inevitable recession.

    Click to expand…

    I likes @ticker‘s sarcasm better but I see what you mean.  Nothing I see or hear today is any more scary then last week.  If the market does blow up then yes this lot of money will take it on the chin.  However, For me personally in my early thirties with a ton of personal capital to harvest I would like a major market decline right about now.  I will believe it when I see it.

    “Never let your sense of morals prevent you from doing what is right.”

    #236488 Reply
    Liked by Tangler
    The White Coat Investor The White Coat Investor 
    Keymaster
    Status: Physician
    Posts: 4621
    Joined: 05/13/2011

    I have a very generous grandparent who gave me a gift for giving him his 4th great-grandchild.  He wants us to use it as we see fit.  No strings attached.

    My wife and I decided it should go to their 529.

    I have his 529 invested aggressively 70/30 US/international as he has 18 years to go.

    I peeked at the market and saw we had a couple of bad days and today is looking much worse.

    My plan is to put the money in as soon as it is “digitized” which would be today if I can get to the bank. I might do it today anyways an pay myself back when I can.   I see an opportunity to buy low right now.  Who knows what tomorrow will bring.  Strong rebound? Further decline? Either way I expect today’s value to be much lower then that in 18 years.

    But I would be interested if there were those who would hold off waiting to see what happens with Mr. Market.

    Comments/ Questions welcome!

    Click to expand…

    So….do you think the market will be higher or lower in 18-22 years?

    Site/Forum Owner, Emergency Physician, Blogger, and author of The White Coat Investor: A Doctor's Guide to Personal Finance and Investing
    Helping Those Who Wear The White Coat Get A "Fair Shake" on Wall Street since 2011

    #236507 Reply
    Liked by Tangler
    Lordosis Lordosis 
    Participant
    Status: Physician
    Posts: 2186
    Joined: 02/11/2019
    Splash Refinancing Bonus
    Either way I expect today’s value to be much lower then that in 18 years.

    Click to expand…
    So….do you think the market will be higher or lower in 18-22 years?

    Click to expand…

    I fully expect it to be higher but what do I know I am just a doc!

    “Never let your sense of morals prevent you from doing what is right.”

    #236516 Reply
    Liked by Tangler, Craigy
    MPMD MPMD 
    Participant
    Status: Physician
    Posts: 2608
    Joined: 05/01/2017

    I have a very generous grandparent who gave me a gift for giving him his 4th great-grandchild.  He wants us to use it as we see fit.  No strings attached.

    My wife and I decided it should go to their 529.

    I have his 529 invested aggressively 70/30 US/international as he has 18 years to go.

    I peeked at the market and saw we had a couple of bad days and today is looking much worse.

    My plan is to put the money in as soon as it is “digitized” which would be today if I can get to the bank. I might do it today anyways an pay myself back when I can.   I see an opportunity to buy low right now.  Who knows what tomorrow will bring.  Strong rebound? Further decline? Either way I expect today’s value to be much lower then that in 18 years.

    But I would be interested if there were those who would hold off waiting to see what happens with Mr. Market.

    Comments/ Questions welcome!

    Click to expand…

    So….do you think the market will be higher or lower in 18-22 years?

    Click to expand…

    you think there will be a market, that’s cute.

    #236540 Reply
    Craigy Craigy 
    Participant
    Status: Spouse
    Posts: 2111
    Joined: 09/16/2016

    5% off is 5% off.  Investing for the long-haul, I’d take it now and not wait.

    With my kids’ money, I try to avoid any sort of timing at all, and invest when the money hits the account.

    LEVEL 1 WCI FORUM MEMBER.

    #236554 Reply
    Liked by Tangler, Lordosis

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