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  • Avatar StarTrekDoc
    Participant
    Status: Physician
    Posts: 2150
    Joined: 01/15/2017

    Oh smack —  7 seater option.   Fall 2020 is a bit disappointing unfortunately.

    Car and Driver:  https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a26828716/tesla-model-y-photos-info/

    So get the initial LongRange Rear Drive or sport $4k more for the AWD?

    #198582 Reply
    Molar Mechanic Molar Mechanic
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    Status: Dentist, Small Business Owner
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    Joined: 10/29/2017

    Slick looking. Will be interesting to see how much room there really is in those back seats.

     

    Personally, the five seat version would be perfect for me, but I’m not shopping.  We’ll see what the options are next year when we shop more seriously for a new family hauler.  I was hoping they would offer a jumbo battery road trip warrior option, too.  I knew that was a long shot.

    #198615 Reply
    Avatar StarTrekDoc
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    Status: Physician
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    Joined: 01/15/2017

    Recharge 168 miles in 15 minutes at Supercharger locations.   — this caught my attention on the new supercharger V3.0

    We spec’d out the 7 seater for now while awaiting more specifics on the reality of the space and how much it’ll eat up when folded down too.

    #198620 Reply
    jhenry jhenry
    Participant
    Status: Financial Advisor, Small Business Owner
    Posts: 14
    Joined: 03/26/2019

    I have regarded Musk as a brilliant entrepreneur, but have had suspicion towards the cult who load up on the TSLA stock disregarding fundamentals and idiosyncratic risk. I also have not cared for Musk’s misleading communications with the capital markets, his dealings with the SEC and Tesla’s corporate governance.

    However, when I actually drove in a Tesla, I had to admit they are cool and a lot of fun! Much respect to Elon.

    Joshua Henry, Meridian Financial Advisory ~ [email protected]
    https://www.meridianfinancialadvisory.com/

    #201916 Reply
    Liked by Zaphod
    Avatar burritos
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    Status: Physician
    Posts: 539
    Joined: 04/23/2018

    Is there a strike price to consider buying? I knew a FA who in 2011 claimed that he only did index ETFs, but his only stock was TSLA. I think get bought when it IPO’d.

    Fundamentals aside, what is the bankrupt scenario gonna look like? Stock going to zero? Bond holders getting 10 cents on the dollar? Customer base left out in the cold?  I don’t own any tesla stock, but I just don’t see it happening.

    #216799 Reply
    Zaphod Zaphod
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    Status: Physician, Small Business Owner
    Posts: 6339
    Joined: 01/12/2016

    Is there a strike price to consider buying? I knew a FA who in 2011 claimed that he only did index ETFs, but his only stock was TSLA. I think get bought when it IPO’d.

    Fundamentals aside, what is the bankrupt scenario gonna look like? Stock going to zero? Bond holders getting 10 cents on the dollar? Customer base left out in the cold?  I don’t own any tesla stock, but I just don’t see it happening.

    Click to expand…

    This belongs in the Tesla investment section lest we be in trouble.

    As of right now, there is no price to consider buying outside of a well documented reorganization plan. Credit default swaps are pricing in a 40% and rising chance of bankruptcy this year. Hard to say where it might end up since it depends where they pull the plug. Cats out of the bag now though and institutional has made their position known (im sure they waited to dump their stakes first as usual).

    They just arent worth much unfortunately, they have too much debt, obligations and open ended liabilities.

    For holders of the stock and those interested you should read a transcript of Morgan Stanleys Adam Jonas call, used to be the biggest cheerleader, all the sudden sounding like me.

    #216861 Reply
    Liked by portlandia, Craigy
    CordMcNally CordMcNally
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    Status: Physician
    Posts: 3074
    Joined: 01/03/2017

    I will say, I’ve never been big on Tesla as a company, but I do think the innovation they’ve started will push others to help improve this kind of technology.

    “But investing isn’t about beating others at their game. It’s about controlling yourself at your own game.”
    ― Benjamin Graham, The Intelligent Investor

    #216871 Reply
    Avatar Nysoz
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    Status: Physician
    Posts: 96
    Joined: 10/23/2017

    well I bit the bullet and got out of my very frugal ways and ordered an LR awd model 3. I should be getting it this week. I’ve been wanting a tesla forever and was holding out for the model Y, but thinking about it I never really need the cargo space of an SUV 99.9% of the time. I’ll report back later and see if it’s worth looking past my frugal ways (as long as I don’t spontaneously catch fire in the car)

     

    elon’s antics aside, the company itself has basically forced a lot of car companies into making electric cars a reality. the more players that get into it the better for everyone and the planet. tesla also does have a large head start on the competition so we’ll see if that pans out into anything substantial in the future.

    #216876 Reply
    Avatar BCBiker
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    Status: Physician
    Posts: 237
    Joined: 01/10/2016

    Like everyone else I don’t know what is going to happen. I just wouldn’t be surprised if they deliver >100,000 cars in Q2 and then all of this bear talk goes away, just like 2018Q3/Q4. It is funny to me how superficial headlines like “Tesla Sales Decline” can change so many people’s emotions, even (!especially) analysts. Q1 sales was an expected/predictable dip due to expanding delivery logistics at scale to two continents. Year over year 2018Q1/2019Q1 was exceptional [~100%]. I would be persuaded for a bear case if the company revises 2019 deliveries projection below 300,000  to a less than 50% year of year growth rate but it is definitely too early to tell that demand is truly an issue.

    I know @Zaphod will highlight debt issues, decline in demand for S/X lines, which are both true. But saying Tesla is not a growth story by someone who has followed TSLA like Jonas seems disingenuous. Also to be fair to Jonas he presents bear and bull cases and the financial media cherrypicks which numbers to use to support whatever narrative they feel like highlighting that day.

    We also have to remember that the true bears (see earlier posts in this thread) thought that TSLA would not be able to raise capital and that was clearly incorrect.

    The bull case I still believe is viable and the bear case is only viable in the setting of catastrophic, non-recoverable loss of demand.

    To me, the demand story of the Model S/3/X/Y could very similar to the iPhone. The initial people who bought iPhones were people that had Blackberries, just like early adopters of Models S/3/X/Y are BMW/Mercedes/[insert luxury brand] owners.

    In 2008, EVERYONE thought the market was small for $800+ phone so no one thought iPhone was going to be a major player. APPL stock dropped significantly when this was considered to be a fatal flaw in APPL growth story.

    Now 98% of people with iPhones are people who carried flipphones 12 years ago. Consumers have been willing to pay the premium for 10X better product and the lower-cost Android competitors really just fueled the perception that a touchscreen phone was really the only reasonable option. Smartphone adoption approaches 100%. When people see a thin black smartphone, the assumption is that it is an iPhone.

    An ICE car will look like a flipphone looks to us today in 10 years.  Most people reading this know tons about Tesla but the average Joe/Jill is minimally aware so as the iceberg gets exposed, we will see true demand for Model 3/Y. $1000 smartphones in 2008 seems more unlikely than $45K car in 2020 for average consumer.

    Ford, Toyota, Honda, VW will all be electric. However, when people think EV, they will think Tesla and will pay the premium for the privilege like consumers still do for Apple. BMW/Mercedes will remain niche unless they price competitively with Tesla and/or develop equivalent EV tech, which both seem unlikely.

    I personally do not believe the timeframe guidance on autonomous taxi service but anything that moves in that direction would be a clear differentiator. The company has made enormous investments that appear to be very good investments that were made very early that network well and reduce per unit cost at scale: battery tech, battery manufacturing, charging network, autonomous driving, renewable energy ecosystem with solar and batteries, updatable car software, and online car purchasing.

    I have an insignificant component of long term net worth bet on this. If I lose it all it will be worth the money in market education. If it goes well, we will go on a nice vacation in retirement.

    #216880 Reply
    Avatar G
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    Status: Physician, Small Business Owner
    Posts: 1905
    Joined: 01/08/2016
    An ICE car will look like a flipphone looks to us today in 10 years.

    Click to expand…

    I don’t have a pony in this race and although I’ve enjoyed reading the thread, I typically don’t have much to add.

    However, I will comment on that above statement.

    1) Until there is an electric option to power my vehicle for several hundred miles of off-road/isolated/backcountry travel, you’ll find me with an ICE truck and a jerry can of gas.

    2) An antique car is cool.  I wouldn’t say that about an antique flipphone.

    #216882 Reply
    Avatar BCBiker
    Participant
    Status: Physician
    Posts: 237
    Joined: 01/10/2016
    An ICE car will look like a flipphone looks to us today in 10 years. 

    Click to expand…

    I don’t have a pony in this race and although I’ve enjoyed reading the thread, I typically don’t have much to add.

    However, I will comment on that above statement.

    1) Until there is an electric option to power my vehicle for several hundred miles of off-road/isolated/backcountry travel, you’ll find me with an ICE truck and a jerry can of gas.

    2) An antique car is cool.  I wouldn’t say that about an antique flipphone.

    Click to expand…

    1) Most vehicles that are for theoretical off-road activities are used as 2 hr/day commuter cars in reality. That is very niche and insignificant component of market even if every SUV commercial tries to convince otherwise. I wouldn’t discount that EVs might be employed for such activities.  A portable solar panel could be your jerry can equivalent.  But that is not going to be something we see for a while.

    2) People collect old tech that is interesting and meaningful. It is just a different kind of person who collects old Macintosh.  I’ve always found the reverence for 70’s era “muscle cars” to be bizarre. To be fair I find most collectable activity bizarre.

    #216887 Reply
    Liked by G
    Avatar G
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    Status: Physician, Small Business Owner
    Posts: 1905
    Joined: 01/08/2016
    A portable solar panel could be your jerry can equivalent.

    Click to expand…

    nirvana.

    theoretical off-road activities

    Click to expand…

    I wish that I would remember to take pictures.  But it is probably better to not have evidence….

    #216888 Reply
    Avatar Tim
    Participant
    Status: Accountant
    Posts: 3381
    Joined: 09/18/2018

    Interesting take on EV development. Reminds me of the PC industry. Marketing and science have a really weird impact on business. Right place, right time have a tremendous amount to do with success. Choices made by companies and consumers evolve.
    I wonder how this shakes out. Back in the day.

    Personal Computer History: 1975-1984

    #216889 Reply
    Zaphod Zaphod
    Participant
    Status: Physician, Small Business Owner
    Posts: 6339
    Joined: 01/12/2016

    Like everyone else I don’t know what is going to happen. I just wouldn’t be surprised if they deliver >100,000 cars in Q2 and then all of this bear talk goes away, just like 2018Q3/Q4. It is funny to me how superficial headlines like “Tesla Sales Decline” can change so many people’s emotions, even (!especially) analysts. Q1 sales was an expected/predictable dip due to expanding delivery logistics at scale to two continents. Year over year 2018Q1/2019Q1 was exceptional [~100%]. I would be persuaded for a bear case if the company revises 2019 deliveries projection below 300,000  to a less than 50% year of year growth rate but it is definitely too early to tell that demand is truly an issue.

    I know @zaphod will highlight debt issues, decline in demand for S/X lines, which are both true. But saying Tesla is not a growth story by someone who has followed TSLA like Jonas seems disingenuous. Also to be fair to Jonas he presents bear and bull cases and the financial media cherrypicks which numbers to use to support whatever narrative they feel like highlighting that day.

    We also have to remember that the true bears (see earlier posts in this thread) thought that TSLA would not be able to raise capital and that was clearly incorrect.

    The bull case I still believe is viable and the bear case is only viable in the setting of catastrophic, non-recoverable loss of demand.

    To me, the demand story of the Model S/3/X/Y could very similar to the iPhone. The initial people who bought iPhones were people that had Blackberries, just like early adopters of Models S/3/X/Y are BMW/Mercedes/[insert luxury brand] owners.

    In 2008, EVERYONE thought the market was small for $800+ phone so no one thought iPhone was going to be a major player. APPL stock dropped significantly when this was considered to be a fatal flaw in APPL growth story.

    Now 98% of people with iPhones are people who carried flipphones 12 years ago. Consumers have been willing to pay the premium for 10X better product and the lower-cost Android competitors really just fueled the perception that a touchscreen phone was really the only reasonable option. Smartphone adoption approaches 100%. When people see a thin black smartphone, the assumption is that it is an iPhone.

    An ICE car will look like a flipphone looks to us today in 10 years.  Most people reading this know tons about Tesla but the average Joe/Jill is minimally aware so as the iceberg gets exposed, we will see true demand for Model 3/Y. $1000 smartphones in 2008 seems more unlikely than $45K car in 2020 for average consumer.

    Ford, Toyota, Honda, VW will all be electric. However, when people think EV, they will think Tesla and will pay the premium for the privilege like consumers still do for Apple. BMW/Mercedes will remain niche unless they price competitively with Tesla and/or develop equivalent EV tech, which both seem unlikely.

    I personally do not believe the timeframe guidance on autonomous taxi service but anything that moves in that direction would be a clear differentiator. The company has made enormous investments that appear to be very good investments that were made very early that network well and reduce per unit cost at scale: battery tech, battery manufacturing, charging network, autonomous driving, renewable energy ecosystem with solar and batteries, updatable car software, and online car purchasing.

    I have an insignificant component of long term net worth bet on this. If I lose it all it will be worth the money in market education. If it goes well, we will go on a nice vacation in retirement.

    Click to expand…

    I dont know any real person that thought the market for smartphones wasnt massive. It was during the recession, but have does anyone remember seeing one and not getting one for the majority of people? Not a good analogy.

    The people that said they maybe couldnt raise money said that because it was obvious they needed to, they had a very high stock price and simply werent. It was illogical, irrational and a bad move to not if they could. That turns out to be true. It was an epically stupid move out of what can only be guessed as pure arrogance. They could have raised capital with stock raise at 350-380 for months last year and looked great doing so, with mostly equity. Instead they wait until their stock is at 52wk lows, series of publicly poor judgements have tainted the company, etc…and they instead get an incredibly poor raise at very bad terms.

    It doesnt matter how many cars they sell if they cant make a profit. Just doesnt matter. Theres also no evidence that they havent already saturated the EV market that wants one. Being an early mover is now a strike against them as subsidies go away for them while competitors come on scene getting it and combined with them losing it.

    Dont forget tesla is failing on all fronts. The 3 is objectively unreliable, they have poor service centers and difficulty sourcing parts, etc…and liabilities continue to accrue. Those are not just debt but for false advertising, contributing to deaths, stiffing suppliers, workers, etc…once sentiment turns on a company, etc…anything can happen and things looked over get punished.

    It would be great if Elon would have not been a part of tesla for some time now, hes not good for it.

    Its unlikely all cars go electric anytime soon, maybe further in the future. Everyone always dramatically under appreciates how long these transitions take. Even if we already had replacement vehicles today, and we gave one to everyone it would take considerable time. Chemistry just doesnt work the way moores law does and theres no crazy battery breakthrough coming to dramatically change things without serious trade offs. You can literally take the periodic table and find the most dense battery, its not hard. Its hard to make it work in real life with acceptable trade offs. Lets remember electric were the first cars. Everything follows energy density its just nearly impossible to beat.

    Theres a future there, but what we mostly hear is marketing.

    For car considerations, you really do want to think about those 1% use cases as they will be the annoying parts that make you think about changing your vehicle. Just the way purchases like that work. I dont mean moonroof, etc…but like roomy, hauling, etc…

    #216923 Reply
    Liked by MaxPower
    wonka31 wonka31
    Participant
    Status: Physician
    Posts: 715
    Joined: 03/24/2018

    I like his cars, don’t own one, but still think he’s biting off more than he can chew. The article below is somewhat timely to continue this discussion. I know it’s not Tesla related, but feel it’s pertinent here.

     

    https://jalopnik.com/elon-musk-says-hyperloop-tunnel-is-now-just-a-normal-1835024474

    #216926 Reply

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