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Bought Bitcoin and can't stop !!!

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  • Avatar docnews 
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    Status: Physician
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    Joined: 01/09/2016

    Interesting take on the development of cryptocurrency

     

     

    http://www.epsilontheory.com/too-clever-by-half/

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    I like this article because it acknowledges there is innovation behind cryptocurrency. Leveraging into dotcoms, real estate, and bitcoin can cost people big but investing with diversity (“indexing” into these innovative markets) is profitable. Buying tech stock index funds in the late 90s, buying multiple rentable properties in 2007, and buying bitcoin mid 2017 – as long one had the discipline and the ability to hold – all were profitable investments even when the bubbles burst.

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    That is not what I got out of the article. It was basically equating bitcoin (backed by math!!!) to MBS (look at my equation!) and showing the whole idea is similar and it is far from new. Bitcoins real issue is it doesnt work very well nor solve any TAM issue. Its just a different iteration of get rich without risk because its backed by a beautiful equation. Equations dont understand that human psychology will ruin any fail safe imaginable.

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    Actually MBS creators were referred to as smart coyotes who had their invention corrupted by raccoon rating agencies whose greed made them rubber stamp MBSs.

     

    See: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/040915/why-do-mbs-mortgagebacked-securities-still-exist-if-they-created-so-much-trouble-2008.asp

     

    The cryptocurrency “equation” is not ruined but there will be derivative raccoon schemes (such as ICOs) that cause many to lose tons.

    #102855 Reply
    Avatar Doc Spouse 
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    Status: Small Business Owner, Spouse
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    Meh, I’ve said before that I’m not a fan of crypto. It’s completely unregulated, shady as heck, and there’s 1,000 scam coins for every decent one, but with all that being said, there’s money to be made.  Might not be smart money, but it’s money.

    That 5k xrp I purchased for .20 back in October was sold in early January for $2.73  Paid off my MBA with part of the proceeds and dumped 2k back into the market in alt coins.  That’s now up to 5k even with the last few bloody weeks.  Small potatoes, but it’s more fun than the roulette table. /shrug

    Edit: For those of you who did trade crypto back in 2017, understand you need to figure gains/losses on EVERY trade, even between coins/tokens.  I trialed this for my initial BTC/XRP purchase and it worked wonderfully – https://bitcoin.tax/ I plan on using it again for 2018.  Just figured I’d share to save some headaches for others.

     

    #103250 Reply
    Liked by Zaphod
    Avatar burritos 
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    Status: Physician
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    Joined: 04/23/2018

    The price is 1/3 the price of the peak. Wasn’t aware of such a recent plunge.

    #131836 Reply
    Zaphod Zaphod 
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    The price is 1/3 the price of the peak. Wasn’t aware of such a recent plunge.

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    Yep. Basically since it gained wider adoption and futures came online and greater two way markets emerged (ie true price discovery) the price has not and is not likely to recover and move beyond. The bubble was the only thing providing enough hype for people to try to adopt it, now that its out of the equation, that motivation is even gone.

    As my position has always been, the more this gets out there the more obvious it will become how useless it is (for stated purposes, it just cant work, the bigger it gets the worse it serves, dumb model) outside of countries with tight capital controls and getting your money out, and nefarious activities. Both of those would rather see a less volatile price of course.

    #131841 Reply
    Avatar StarTrekDoc 
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    Status: Physician
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    It’s a nice universal currency to have that’s not pegging to the USD or Euro.   It don’t think it’ll ever be mainstream in usage as Zaphod mentioned.  The transactional costs remain high and the security still is crazy weak with exchanges routinely being targeted.

    Interesting point on futures causing a calming effect on the currency.   Have largely stayed away from all this, but friends have had their fun with it and mining along with reselling the machines over time.

    #131861 Reply
    Avatar docnews 
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    Status: Physician
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    If you are a believer heck of a time to buy. If not, the hype is gone and we’re going to zero.

    #131872 Reply
    Jaqen Haghar, MD Jaqen Haghar, MD 
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    Status: Physician
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    Joined: 07/27/2017

    Bitcoin from the time of the beginning of this thread was a great example of what a bubble actually feels like.  That frenzy of talk, news and activity signals the top.  You could literally feel it in the air and taste it.  People at work were asking me if they should load up at $18-19K before it really takes off.

    The opposite is true for the bottom….  if you’re the gambling sort.

    #131877 Reply
    Liked by Zaphod, Crixus
    jfoxcpacfp jfoxcpacfp 
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    Status: Financial Advisor, Accountant, Small Business Owner
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    This is such a great example for the readers of this forum about the workings of an investment bubble. I hope the huge majority reading this thread are on the sidelines. It seems obvious (to me, at least) when comparing bitcoin to the overall market that a market bubble is not building at the moment.

    Johanna Fox Turner, CPA, CFP: I am not your financial advisor; any responses are for general purposes only
    http://www.fox-cpas.com/for-doctors-only ~ [email protected]

    #131891 Reply
    jfoxcpacfp jfoxcpacfp 
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    This is such a great example for the readers of this forum about the workings of an investment bubble. I hope the huge majority reading this thread are on the sidelines. It seems obvious (to me, at least) when comparing bitcoin to the overall market that a market bubble is not building at the moment.

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    The financial asset bubble is much more dangerous then the crypto mania. Only a sliver of the population participated in BTC.

    This bubble has been in the making for nearly 4 decades and the boomers are balls deep into it.

    Passive indexing and the belief markets always bounce back have lulled the muppets into complacency.

     

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    Oh, well, once again, we’ll have to agree to disagree.

    Johanna Fox Turner, CPA, CFP: I am not your financial advisor; any responses are for general purposes only
    http://www.fox-cpas.com/for-doctors-only ~ [email protected]

    #131899 Reply
    Avatar burritos 
    Participant
    Status: Physician
    Posts: 529
    Joined: 04/23/2018

    This is such a great example for the readers of this forum about the workings of an investment bubble. I hope the huge majority reading this thread are on the sidelines. It seems obvious (to me, at least) when comparing bitcoin to the overall market that a market bubble is not building at the moment.

    Click to expand…

    The financial asset bubble is much more dangerous then the crypto mania. Only a sliver of the population participated in BTC.

     

    This bubble has been in the making for nearly 4 decades and the boomers are balls deep into it.

     

    Passive indexing and the belief markets always bounce back have lulled the muppets into complacency.

     

     

    Click to expand…

    Gold and commodities multi centimillionaire Jim Rodgers moved to Singapore and is mandating his kids to learn Mandarin. Good or bad move?

    #132233 Reply
    Avatar burritos 
    Participant
    Status: Physician
    Posts: 529
    Joined: 04/23/2018

    This is such a great example for the readers of this forum about the workings of an investment bubble. I hope the huge majority reading this thread are on the sidelines. It seems obvious (to me, at least) when comparing bitcoin to the overall market that a market bubble is not building at the moment.

    Click to expand…

    The financial asset bubble is much more dangerous then the crypto mania. Only a sliver of the population participated in BTC.

     

    This bubble has been in the making for nearly 4 decades and the boomers are balls deep into it.

     

    Passive indexing and the belief markets always bounce back have lulled the muppets into complacency.

     

     

    Click to expand…

    Gold and commodities multi centimillionaire Jim Rodgers moved to Singapore and is mandating his kids to learn Mandarin. Good or bad move?

    Click to expand…

    I think USA will be the place to be after the reset. If we are free from the Enemy in Europe then America can truly lead the world from the central banking warfare/tax farm model.

    What the Communist Party is doing over in China really poses a threat to the future of the species.

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    You seem to know a lot. How many people die your version of the reset or the fourth turning? 1%? 5%?

    #132285 Reply
    Avatar nolamd84 
    Participant
    Status: Physician
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    Joined: 01/08/2016

    I don’t think I have ever liked a person that uses SJW as an acronym.

    #132493 Reply
    jfoxcpacfp jfoxcpacfp 
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    I had never even seen SJW used. And, now, with a nod to Paul Harvey, I know the rest of the story.

    Johanna Fox Turner, CPA, CFP: I am not your financial advisor; any responses are for general purposes only
    http://www.fox-cpas.com/for-doctors-only ~ [email protected]

    #132496 Reply
    Liked by adventure
    Avatar beagler 
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    Status: Physician
    Posts: 273
    Joined: 07/08/2017

    Educate me. Is crypto all that different than gold? Value is by fixed supply and human demand.

    Gold has some industrial uses, but not large enough to set price. Crypto is useful for transfers but doesn’t set price.

    Gold jewelry and hoarding are subjective demand, but no intrinsic value other than a long history of people wanting shiny yellow metal. Crypto has is ~2 years history of subjective demand.

    Solo Internist, Midwest

    #132565 Reply
    Avatar burritos 
    Participant
    Status: Physician
    Posts: 529
    Joined: 04/23/2018

    Were abolitionists a form of SJWism before SJW was a thing?

    #132569 Reply

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