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  • BCBiker
    replied







     







    put options
    Click to expand…


    The IV is insanely high, so its still tough to make money, especially if you’re trying for bankruptcy style puts. I was super bummed when I woke up yesterday as I was going to re up to 250 for next week as my news drop strikes in near term.

    If my nearer term puts go up dramatically I’ve been taking a percentage off the table and then letting the rest go just in case. Its been somewhat a consistent and orderly drop so its not great for puts in nearer expiries, and longer term you have to watch IV, etc…

    I’ve sold call spreads as well against the positions.

    That the price was for so long over 300 and offering an insane r/r is just amazing. Its still pretty amazing.
    Click to expand…


    @zaphod.  I like your options strategy on this volatile stock.  There is an enormous amount of value to be extracted.  The religious fervor of $TSLA bulls and bears is perhaps a once in a lifetime opportunity for a smart, grounded options trader. ?

    I’m long on Tesla as I have posted about before in a very small portion of the otherwise WCI compatible portfolio.

    Put options on $TSLA are insane! The cost of $145 Strike (55% below current value) contract for June 2020 is >$2000.  You could also argue that it is equally crazy that a $700 strike contract for Jan 2010 has been hovering at around $1000. This can purchased at quite a discount today for <$400 if you have the stomach for it.
    Click to expand…


    I’ve tried selling some of the calls that are egregrious, actually the halt the first day really hurt me, I was orchestrating a pretty sweet longer term call spread with premium>max loss and something like 515/520 in december, amongst some other plays. I hit send and it turns out it had been halted for like 10 seconds. The bid was no longer there afterwards for such a premium.

    Sometimes it looks like theres a nice bid on some OOTM plays, but I’ve not got anyone to actually purchse them, they are pretty thin and you have to reach toward the bid which isnt ideal. But yes overall, lots of premium to be extracted, its all in the setup.
    Click to expand...


    Do you think Jim would be horrified if we created an 'Options' category in this forum?

    I installed Robinhood a few months ago and put $200 in expecting to lose it all, get scared, and never do such a stupid thing again.

    I was just waiting for an opportunity to buy something.  Then Genomic Health released their results of a clinical trial at ASCO.  The options traders didn't appear to see the value immediately. I bought a OOTM Call with expiration 3 months out for $175 that quadrupled in value before the end of the following day. Since then I have been buying very cheap OOTM on tech companies that have exploded.  Now I am annoyingly addicted.

    I invested another $1500 in cash that I have more than tripled in last 2 months returning my initial investment to my taxable index fund portfolio.

    So now I am just playing with gains.  It is almost exclusively on calls so I know I'm vulnerable to a major negative correction. I haven't touched Tesla because it is expensive and I'm playing with small money. I've considered putting say 5% of taxable in options but I may be suffering from beginners luck in a bull market.

     

    Leave a comment:


  • Zaphod
    replied
    The short sellers views are just largely finally coming to fruition and validation. Things always take forever. Theranos just now is closing, theyve been a known absolute fraud for years. It never happens quickly.

    I assumed it was going to take a recession and demand drop to reveal Teslas precarious position, but it turns out execution errors and ego have done it earlier. Musk is a great visionary, but not a very good chief executive. The financials can only be ignored so long and combined with something like manufacturing efficiency/volume which just cant change 100s of % overnight, it was inevitable.

    I mean this is literally going down exactly as expected and for all the exact reasons that have been pointed our for literally years. Taking on debt and converts when they should have issued equity (thats what you do with overvalued share prices!), projecting production goals in excess of their factory build out and factory capacity even when run as the most efficient in the country (this is like face palm obvious), bailing out Solar City which was just bad and a self dealing endeavor which they have just folded as an operation quietly.

    His increasing erratic behavior is simply the result of the pressure of holding this massive production and the likely increasing frauds within, and realizing its coming to the point where it can no longer be sustained. His interviews, words, reasoning, etc...are basically indistinguishable from those of Skilling near the end of Enrons collapse. That NYT and blog yesterday are seriously hard to tell between the two, look it up.

    The board is incompetent and should be trying to cover themselves more, they hold a lot of responsibility and it will be interesting to see how they try to get out of it. For the record, companies that complain about short sellers and especially those that become obsessed with them have a tendency to turn out badly.

    Leave a comment:


  • Zaphod
    replied




     







    put options
    Click to expand…


    The IV is insanely high, so its still tough to make money, especially if you’re trying for bankruptcy style puts. I was super bummed when I woke up yesterday as I was going to re up to 250 for next week as my news drop strikes in near term.

    If my nearer term puts go up dramatically I’ve been taking a percentage off the table and then letting the rest go just in case. Its been somewhat a consistent and orderly drop so its not great for puts in nearer expiries, and longer term you have to watch IV, etc…

    I’ve sold call spreads as well against the positions.

    That the price was for so long over 300 and offering an insane r/r is just amazing. Its still pretty amazing.
    Click to expand…


    @zaphod.  I like your options strategy on this volatile stock.  There is an enormous amount of value to be extracted.  The religious fervor of $TSLA bulls and bears is perhaps a once in a lifetime opportunity for a smart, grounded options trader. ?

    I’m long on Tesla as I have posted about before in a very small portion of the otherwise WCI compatible portfolio.

    Put options on $TSLA are insane! The cost of $145 Strike (55% below current value) contract for June 2020 is >$2000.  You could also argue that it is equally crazy that a $700 strike contract for Jan 2010 has been hovering at around $1000. This can purchased at quite a discount today for <$400 if you have the stomach for it.
    Click to expand...


    I've tried selling some of the calls that are egregrious, actually the halt the first day really hurt me, I was orchestrating a pretty sweet longer term call spread with premium>max loss and something like 515/520 in december, amongst some other plays. I hit send and it turns out it had been halted for like 10 seconds. The bid was no longer there afterwards for such a premium.

    Sometimes it looks like theres a nice bid on some OOTM plays, but I've not got anyone to actually purchse them, they are pretty thin and you have to reach toward the bid which isnt ideal. But yes overall, lots of premium to be extracted, its all in the setup.

    Leave a comment:


  • BCBiker
    replied
     







    put options
    Click to expand…


    The IV is insanely high, so its still tough to make money, especially if you’re trying for bankruptcy style puts. I was super bummed when I woke up yesterday as I was going to re up to 250 for next week as my news drop strikes in near term.

    If my nearer term puts go up dramatically I’ve been taking a percentage off the table and then letting the rest go just in case. Its been somewhat a consistent and orderly drop so its not great for puts in nearer expiries, and longer term you have to watch IV, etc…

    I’ve sold call spreads as well against the positions.

    That the price was for so long over 300 and offering an insane r/r is just amazing. Its still pretty amazing.
    Click to expand...


    @Zaphod.  I like your options strategy on this volatile stock.  There is an enormous amount of value to be extracted.  The religious fervor of $TSLA bulls and bears is perhaps a once in a lifetime opportunity for a smart, grounded options trader.

    I'm long on Tesla as I have posted about before in a very small portion of the otherwise WCI compatible portfolio.

    Put options on $TSLA are insane! The cost of $145 Strike (55% below current value) contract for June 2020 is >$2000.  You could also argue that it is equally crazy that a $700 strike contract for Jan 2010 has been hovering at around $1000. This can purchased at quite a discount today for <$400 if you have the stomach for it.

    Leave a comment:


  • StarTrekDoc
    replied
    Word on the short sellers has been that forever.   He's certainly not helping with his antics.    You get the bad with the good.  Genius is one step away from madness.

    I still love my Tesla 3

    Leave a comment:


  • Zaphod
    replied




    put options
    Click to expand...


    The IV is insanely high, so its still tough to make money, especially if you're trying for bankruptcy style puts. I was super bummed when I woke up yesterday as I was going to re up to 250 for next week as my news drop strikes in near term.

    If my nearer term puts go up dramatically I've been taking a percentage off the table and then letting the rest go just in case. Its been somewhat a consistent and orderly drop so its not great for puts in nearer expiries, and longer term you have to watch IV, etc...

    I've sold call spreads as well against the positions.

    That the price was for so long over 300 and offering an insane r/r is just amazing. Its still pretty amazing.

    Leave a comment:


  • Zaphod
    replied




    I kind of never understood how a guy can be that involved and successful in making revolutionary card, a outer space exploration, building a high speed tunnel system (Boring), solar panel shingles and who knows what else.

    I hope for the sake of the cars that he replaces himself or there is a coup at Tesla. They truly are revolutionary, though I will likely never own one (too cheap to foot the cost). At this point, they need an experienced automotive leaderrunning the business, not him. Word on the street is cash reserves are quite low and they are in a touch of trouble here.
    Click to expand...


    Theres no one there to replace him, the management depth chart is nonexistent and almost all execs have left. Yesterday he put out a memo promoting a bunch of middle management to much higher up positions. No one with any credibility would associate themselves with them now, the end game is too obvious and they lost control of the narrative which was the only thing sustaining them.

    A more responsible board would have fired Musk after the 'funding secured' incident, and probably have filed for bankruptcy by now. At this rate the equity holders will be wiped out completely as they basically have no cash. They sent an email to reservation holders to come down to the factory and pick out a car today, thats kind of the cash position theyre in. The 2025 bonds are trading as if the holders expect to not get anywhere close to their principal back, and thats a very bad sign for equity holders. Lately institutional holders have been dumping shares onto retail, which is never good and theyll end up the bag holders again.

    Sad thing is still there is a crazy fervent fan base that believes everything and is continually dumping their money into the stock. Its wild and there will really be no excuses as it was clearly over valued and they had zero runway to meet their valuations without huge changes going back years. At some point valuation, debt, cash flow, etc...matter. This is not a tech company and that was one of the dumbest arguments ever. Tech companies are not extremely high capex affairs, and it was insane to believe a car manufacturer that was vertically integrated (which is not the most efficient way from a capital intensive standpoint) could garner that multiple.

    A great reminder, narratives rule the market. This is true until it turns. Also good to remember not to get caught up in ideological or hero type worship, which to be quite honest was Musks main shebang. This led to rationalization, justification, etc...and people discounting not just red flags but buildings on fire. Hes just a person, its just a company and a stock.

    Leave a comment:


  • Dr.V. Investor
    replied
    put options

    Leave a comment:


  • wonka31
    replied
    I kind of never understood how a guy can be that involved and successful in making revolutionary card, a outer space exploration, building a high speed tunnel system (Boring), solar panel shingles and who knows what else.

    I hope for the sake of the cars that he replaces himself or there is a coup at Tesla. They truly are revolutionary, though I will likely never own one (too cheap to foot the cost). At this point, they need an experienced automotive leaderrunning the business, not him. Word on the street is cash reserves are quite low and they are in a touch of trouble here.

    Leave a comment:


  • ENT Doc
    replied
    Train wreck.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-07/tesla-tumbles-after-chief-accounting-officer-quits-after-just-one-month

    Leave a comment:


  • Zaphod
    replied










    In 2016 bought into a falling stock called Valeant. It was ensconced in a scandal which I thought was a buying opportunity. I vested my annual IRA contribution $5500 at 46/share. After all, the infamous hedge fund manager Bill Ackerman had 4 billion dollars invested in it and was holding strong in his position. At it’s peak it was 230 per share. Within a a few days, it dropped to $26. I sold and vowed to not do anything stupid like that again. Sometimes bad experiences teaches you a lot(like not ordering an HCG for a lady who you’re sure has an appy, “hey I was trying to save this cash patient some money before shipping her to the ER”). Checking it today, it looks like they are now rebranded as Bausch(not ironically a company they bought out). It had dropped as low as $9/share, but is sitting pretty at $23. Had I held, I would have only lost another $375 over the course of 2 years, on top of the $2250 i lost in one day.
    Click to expand…


    Painful lessons. Of interesting note, tsla bonds are trading at a similar range with valeants today. The other companies near that range are pretty telling as well, leveraged buy outs and debt restructured companies winding out bankruptcy, etc…At any rate, it nearly never pays to be investing in a battleground type stock, not worth the risk.
    Click to expand…


    “Battleground stock.” I like that description and it makes a lot of sense. Did you make that up? For me that concern is totally neutralized when clicking buttons on a computer. Thanks.
    Click to expand...


    I did not make it up unfortunately.

    Leave a comment:


  • burritos
    replied







    In 2016 bought into a falling stock called Valeant. It was ensconced in a scandal which I thought was a buying opportunity. I vested my annual IRA contribution $5500 at 46/share. After all, the infamous hedge fund manager Bill Ackerman had 4 billion dollars invested in it and was holding strong in his position. At it’s peak it was 230 per share. Within a a few days, it dropped to $26. I sold and vowed to not do anything stupid like that again. Sometimes bad experiences teaches you a lot(like not ordering an HCG for a lady who you’re sure has an appy, “hey I was trying to save this cash patient some money before shipping her to the ER”). Checking it today, it looks like they are now rebranded as Bausch(not ironically a company they bought out). It had dropped as low as $9/share, but is sitting pretty at $23. Had I held, I would have only lost another $375 over the course of 2 years, on top of the $2250 i lost in one day.
    Click to expand…


    Painful lessons. Of interesting note, tsla bonds are trading at a similar range with valeants today. The other companies near that range are pretty telling as well, leveraged buy outs and debt restructured companies winding out bankruptcy, etc…At any rate, it nearly never pays to be investing in a battleground type stock, not worth the risk.
    Click to expand...


    "Battleground stock." I like that description and it makes a lot of sense. Did you make that up? For me that concern is totally neutralized when clicking buttons on a computer. Thanks.

    Leave a comment:


  • Zaphod
    replied




    In 2016 bought into a falling stock called Valeant. It was ensconced in a scandal which I thought was a buying opportunity. I vested my annual IRA contribution $5500 at 46/share. After all, the infamous hedge fund manager Bill Ackerman had 4 billion dollars invested in it and was holding strong in his position. At it’s peak it was 230 per share. Within a a few days, it dropped to $26. I sold and vowed to not do anything stupid like that again. Sometimes bad experiences teaches you a lot(like not ordering an HCG for a lady who you’re sure has an appy, “hey I was trying to save this cash patient some money before shipping her to the ER”). Checking it today, it looks like they are now rebranded as Bausch(not ironically a company they bought out). It had dropped as low as $9/share, but is sitting pretty at $23. Had I held, I would have only lost another $375 over the course of 2 years, on top of the $2250 i lost in one day.
    Click to expand...


    Painful lessons. Of interesting note, tsla bonds are trading at a similar range with valeants today. The other companies near that range are pretty telling as well, leveraged buy outs and debt restructured companies winding out bankruptcy, etc...At any rate, it nearly never pays to be investing in a battleground type stock, not worth the risk.

    Leave a comment:


  • burritos
    replied
    In 2016 bought into a falling stock called Valeant. It was ensconced in a scandal which I thought was a buying opportunity. I vested my annual IRA contribution $5500 at 46/share. After all, the infamous hedge fund manager Bill Ackerman had 4 billion dollars invested in it and was holding strong in his position. At it's peak it was 230 per share. Within a a few days, it dropped to $26. I sold and vowed to not do anything stupid like that again. Sometimes bad experiences teaches you a lot(like not ordering an HCG for a lady who you're sure has an appy, "hey I was trying to save this cash patient some money before shipping her to the ER"). Checking it today, it looks like they are now rebranded as Bausch(not ironically a company they bought out). It had dropped as low as $9/share, but is sitting pretty at $23. Had I held, I would have only lost another $375 over the course of 2 years, on top of the $2250 i lost in one day.

    Leave a comment:


  • Zaphod
    replied




    Playing devil’s advocate, say Tesla doesn’t get cash to keep things going and goes out of business, who takes care of the Tesla cars on the road now?
    Click to expand...


    This has always been a big concern with any new car company. Especially now considering they have trouble sourcing parts today and service is slow. When they go under or restructure who knows. Unsure what the suppliers will do, its not a large segment of the market. Someone will acquire their stuff on the cheap and hopefully help out those with the cars.

    Leave a comment:

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