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HUGE sell off today!

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  • #46
    I could care less about my investment accounts right now (in fact, I'm looking forward to buying shares on sale)...what I'm worried about is the fact that we've decided to buy a new house (closing Monday) and sell our current house.  If we go into a big recession and prices drop, we're going to lose money on the sale.  We have tons of equity in this house (300k+) and we were hoping to cash out, but who knows now...Maybe we'll become landlords and wait around until prices recover.  We'll just have to list it and see what happens I guess.

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    • #47
      I sold 200k in index funds last week. Still moving to my goal of slightly more cash weighting as the cycle matures. This occurs in stops and starts.

      700k cash in taxable.

      Pockets of interesting value, but not interesting enough to buy. I like cold hard cash late cycle. But not too much. I am still 95% in risk assets.

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      • #48




        I could care less about my investment accounts right now (in fact, I’m looking forward to buying shares on sale)…what I’m worried about is the fact that we’ve decided to buy a new house (closing Monday) and sell our current house.  If we go into a big recession and prices drop, we’re going to lose money on the sale.  We have tons of equity in this house (300k+) and we were hoping to cash out, but who knows now…Maybe we’ll become landlords and wait around until prices recover.  We’ll just have to list it and see what happens I guess.
        Click to expand...


        Even if we were in a recession today, we wouldnt know that for about 6 months from now, and regular normal old people wouldnt have a clue until after that. Its not like things just change overnight and everything is terrible.

        Also, with the rate crush you're more likely to have an initial boost of buyers that have been waiting and are ready now that there are 'deals'.

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        • #49




          I could care less about my investment accounts right now (in fact, I’m looking forward to buying shares on sale)…what I’m worried about is the fact that we’ve decided to buy a new house (closing Monday) and sell our current house.  If we go into a big recession and prices drop, we’re going to lose money on the sale.  We have tons of equity in this house (300k+) and we were hoping to cash out, but who knows now…Maybe we’ll become landlords and wait around until prices recover.  We’ll just have to list it and see what happens I guess.
          Click to expand...


          Wait! I didn't hear the bell?

          Hopefully your perspective home buyers also missed it.

          I would guess 95% of people have no idea what the market/ economy is doing right now.  They are probably the smart ones

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          • #50
            Michael Batnick, of Ritholtz Wealth Management in New York, tweeted this yesterday:

            "Today was the 307th time that the Dow fell 3% in a day over the last 100 years."

             
            Financial planning, investment management and CPA services for medical professionals | 270-247-6087

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            • #51




              Michael Batnick, of Ritholtz Wealth Management in New York, tweeted this yesterday:

              “Today was the 307th time that the Dow fell 3% in a day over the last 100 years.”

               
              Click to expand...


              Ben Carlson and Morgan Housel are also good follows if you're a Twitterer (Tweeter? Twitter user?).

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              • #52
                Been cashing out myself over the past weeks.  I think I liquidated over $100k so far.  Plan another $200k shortly but most of what's left is money market.

                I'd love to say it's timing, but we need the cash to buy a lot. 

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                • #53




                  I could care less about my investment accounts right now (in fact, I’m looking forward to buying shares on sale)…what I’m worried about is the fact that we’ve decided to buy a new house (closing Monday) and sell our current house.  If we go into a big recession and prices drop, we’re going to lose money on the sale.  We have tons of equity in this house (300k+) and we were hoping to cash out, but who knows now…Maybe we’ll become landlords and wait around until prices recover.  We’ll just have to list it and see what happens I guess.
                  Click to expand...


                  Hurry and list it. It may sell quick before buyers catch on that we may be in some trouble

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                  • #54
                    Goes up and goes down, no one (not even EMD) can predict daily/weekly/monthly/yearly fluctuations.
                    Some folks just don’t know they cannot do it.
                    Some folks don’t know what they don’t know!

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                    • #55
                      Yes, no one knows anything.
                      The future is unknowable.
                      The main thing I’m interested in is what I’m able to comfortably hold over the cycle and whether I can maintain my strategy whatever happens.

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                      • #56
                        Recession has a definition (kind of)-
                        https://www.nber.org/cycles/jan2003.html

                        GDP shrinking two months in a row is the “short version “. If you wait for NBER just realize your boat is already taking on significant water.

                        https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2019/07/30/the-big-four-economic-indicators-real-personal-income-in-june

                        The funny thing is, the stock market try’s to keep getting ahead looking forward. So far, the rate of growth has slowed a bit. By the way, the market and the economy are actually two fields of academic study.

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                        • #57







                          In before EnterpriseMD comes in to tell us all how last night he predicted that today would happen.
                          Click to expand…


                          Now that’s ridiculous.

                          You specifically chose me (or my twin, Enterprise) because you know I predicted today ages ago, although yes I was screaming about this carnage yesterday in my posts.

                          Thanks for the acknowledgement by you, and all that liked. You’re all too kind.
                          Click to expand...


                          8/14 close: 25479

                          8/21 close: 26202

                          I probably missed the post where you also predicted that a week later the DJIA would have un-carnaged.

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                          • #58


                            8/14 close: 25479 8/21 close: 26202 I probably missed the post where you also predicted that a week later the DJIA would have un-carnaged.
                            Click to expand...


                            I was going to make the comment that it is funny this thread only got attention on the bad days.  But you beat me to it!

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                            • #59





                              8/14 close: 25479 8/21 close: 26202 I probably missed the post where you also predicted that a week later the DJIA would have un-carnaged. 
                              Click to expand…


                              I was going to make the comment that it is funny this thread only got attention on the bad days.  But you beat me to it!
                              Click to expand...


                              Oh, don't worry, he'll be back the next time the Dow drops 2% in a day to boast how just the week before he had predicted that it would happen, only to disappear again when it inevitably gains 3% the next day.

                              Comment


                              • #60








                                8/14 close: 25479 8/21 close: 26202 I probably missed the post where you also predicted that a week later the DJIA would have un-carnaged. 
                                Click to expand…


                                I was going to make the comment that it is funny this thread only got attention on the bad days.  But you beat me to it!
                                Click to expand…


                                Oh, don’t worry, he’ll be back the next time the Dow drops 2% in a day to boast how just the week before he had predicted that it would happen, only to disappear again when it inevitably gains 3% the next day.
                                Click to expand...


                                Yeah, don't worry. I made the argument for an upswing in another thread (why else would I hold on to my funds?). Look at historic patterns with 2/10 inversions, by no means a straight drop into the abyss of recession. Don't be such short term thinkers. Keeping with the herd mentality won't get you to where I got - no real chance at upward mobility. Naïve to think the world's problems reversed course 8/14-8/21. That's the herd being herded back and forth. Hoping for a nibble at new highs so I can sell, but not holding my breath. My CD's outperformed markets last 18 months.

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