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Is Now a Good Time to Buy a Home???

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  • #16
    •”a house that we really love”
    primary objective.
    •Not on payment has bee missed, not one past due notice, not one foreclosure. Way, way ahead of any distress sales.
    •New housing supply? Sure a builder might cut a deal to trim his carrying costs. Note he is still building. No sign of panic or distress.
    The house is the last asset sold in economic distress usually.
    Insecurity and anxiety might get a contract accepted, most likely the sale was already planned. Motivated sellers? Sure. Estates and divorces and moves (relocations on hold).
    No one is going to the bank for short sales. Not even a FSBO sign yet.
    Definitely premature for any bargains.

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    • #17
      Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

      What do you mean by secure? Are you still doing elective surgeries? If you're strictly non-operative sports medicine are you still seeing a full clinic load?
      I think the academic jobs would be relatively secure. Unless the whole university closes, which would be rare in current scenario. They need those centers. Anyway, none of us have lived through this, only time will tell.

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      • #18
        Whatever you get now, you will get a much better deal on in 6-8 months when people are out of reserve cash, options, and work. It’s going to be a bad year.

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        • #19
          Originally posted by OrthoSportsDoc View Post
          No elective cases, though taking some trauma call at a large academic center. 130 wRVUs on a Sunday will keep administrators happy. Strictly phone and video visits at this point except for some post-ops that need to be seen. Obviously no job is 100% secure.

          Thanks for the advice





          130 wRVUs on a Sunday? Must be running two rooms as a femur IMN is just under 20. Or you are an expert biller!!! Rock on.

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          • #20
            Originally posted by uksho View Post

            I think the academic jobs would be relatively secure. Unless the whole university closes, which would be rare in current scenario. They need those centers. Anyway, none of us have lived through this, only time will tell.
            Any job where you are working significantly less or not bringing income in for your employer is not what I would necessarily classify as secure. Long term: likely pretty secure. Short term: probably shaky like many other jobs.

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            • #21
              In the game Monopoly. Do you upgrade your houses as soon as you get the cash to do so or do you wait until you have a little extra so when the bad roll lands you on your friend's hotels you do not need to sell your houses back half price?

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              • #22
                I would wait for those with loan approvals to buy.
                That is sort of a backlog, some are just so focussed on realising their house buying dream and they think they may not be able to get the same loan amounts in 6 months. Personally, I think that is a silly reason to buy.

                After this, I think the loan approvals may well be a lot tighter, on lower incomes and harder to get for 3-6 months or longer.

                Something that has happened in other corona affected countries is governments enacting emergency legislation to stop landlords evicting tennants (e.g UK). If this happens in the US then it will impede any investment real estate that can get loans. It is just crazy risky to buy residential or commercial property for investment if you can’t evict the Tennant. Unless it is very cheap and you can basically leave it untennated. But then there is a risk of squatters. If you have a tennant that won’t pay and can’t evict due to government decree for 6 or 12 months it is very hard to get rent in arrears and good chance they will not be looking after the property.
                Last edited by Dont_know_mind; 04-03-2020, 05:13 AM.

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                • #23
                  I would also wait on the home purchase. Yes, prices may be marginally lower than two months ago but they may very well fall further. Right now, hourly workers are taking the brunt of the financial hit. But as the economic fallout from this pandemic grows and the forecast time for recovery grows, I suspect more and more white collar workers will be affected. Mortgage deferment on McMansions will only be tolerated for so long. Once those highly paid professionals need to downsize and start panic selling is when the real deals will come in. For now, I would just save as much as you can, build your cash reserves, and wait to put in low-ball offers in the future. Plus, if I'm wrong and this whole thing ends next month, I highly doubt that real estate prices will skyrocket immediately.

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                  • #24
                    aware of multiple buyers asking for 10% off agreed purchase price shortly before close d/t covid19 uncertainty, and sellers agreeing nearly without negotiation

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                    • #25
                      Originally posted by goodvibes View Post
                      aware of multiple buyers asking for 10% off agreed purchase price shortly before close d/t covid19 uncertainty, and sellers agreeing nearly without negotiation
                      If you were seller, would chose my path very carefully. Opportunity knocks. Would you cave?

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                      • #26
                        I'd probably wait... the economic fall out form COVID has really yet to set in. And, healthcare workers such as ourselves are not immune to that -- https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/u...s-layoffs.html

                        And this is just... staggering ...

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                        • #27
                          Originally posted by goodvibes View Post
                          aware of multiple buyers asking for 10% off agreed purchase price shortly before close d/t covid19 uncertainty, and sellers agreeing nearly without negotiation
                          Is this a legitimate strategy? We are in contract to close on a house on June 11. We agreed on a price and date a few weeks prior to Covid. What are the risks involved with trying to renegotiate now?

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                          • #28
                            Originally posted by SuperCD View Post
                            What are the risks involved with trying to renegotiate now?
                            Welcome to the board.

                            The risk is the seller’s call off the deal. Very small chance. Most likely they will refuse to budge. Best outcome is they accept a discount.
                            "Oh look another bajillion point declin-Ooooh!!! A coupon for pizza!!!!" <--- This is what everyone's IPS should be. ✓✓✓

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                            • #29
                              FWIW, we are selling right now and it's a great time for us. We listed high, had folks out for showings and had a great offer before we even had an open house (which worked out well since they cancelled open houses). Each market is obviously unique, but I can tell you in ours (Tampa, FL) it's no different than it was 6 months ago (minus some appreciation in the property value).

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                              • #30
                                Same answer as anytime: homes are a safe, solid buys if you truly want a house, you have a stable job that you like, and you plan to be in that place awhile. They create a lot of other ongoing expenses (liabilities), so leave plenty of cushion (closing costs, small repairs, big repairs, new insurances, furnishings, etc etc etc). The biggest problem is loss of opportunity cost: home owners typically won't look for and won't take better jobs since they don't want to think of selling the house or all the stuff they accumulated in it… and a group owner or admin could take advantage of you by giving you minimal raise/bonus once they know you have laid thick roots to the area. The primary residence house is basically a giant 'savings account' that will appreciate slowly with inflation (income apts or biz rental space is another story that can truly be an income thing), but it buying a primary residence to live in is mainly an overall liability and lifestyle choice many people like if they have, or are developing roots in the area. It is vey seldom a big moneymaker when you consider the repairs and time you put into it (unless you are a professional dealing with flips of distressed houses).

                                ...COVID19 didn't change any of that. ^

                                The only thing COVID 19 changed is the overall employment and stock markets... overall financial picture of the country. As was said, if you wait until house sale season starts and "peaks" this summer (it won't do well at all), you can probably get some real deals. You will see listings go up soon, many go unsold with few or no offers, be taken down and listed again at slightly lower price (and to avoid looking "old"), etc. Your realtor will explain all this. There will also be some people foreclosing (even if govt is bailing ppl out or allowing suspend payments, people freak and feel hopeless once they appear to owe more than the house is worth on paper). It is like the 2009-12 time when people were losing their dream home or retirement castle... you could easily find a 350k listing and watch it, offer 200k on it once they had dropped to a 300k ask price a month later, have that offer rejected and watch the price drop drop drop to 250k, eventually offer 202k and get the place. It will be ugly, esp if COVID19 has a second Oct/Nov wave and the economy stays stagnant since people aren't allowed to work/produce. You could probably get some of the houses you are looking at today for 30-50% off the price tags you currently see. No joke. To flippers and rbuy-to-rent ppl, it is a big opportunity... to home buyers/owners/sellers, it will be quite scary.

                                If you want your pick of the "doctor's house" litter in your city, you realize it is a lifestyle purchase, and you don't care if you overpay a bit to avoid settling for the deals that fall through the early summer cracks, then yeah, buy next month or whenever. Your realtor will love you for it. The best ones for sale this summer might still have mini bid-offs even in a sketchy financial time with people furloughed and 401ks down. If your job lets you get the mortgage at a decent rate, you can afford it and want to just do it, then do it and don't look back. Just remember that a primary residence is a lifestyle choice, and down the line, you will probably get back roughly the inflation-adjusted sale price you paid for it (plus maybe your mortgage interest, major but not minor repairs, insurances, etc if you're lucky) when you go to sell it. Most people pay well over 1.5x purchase price with mortgage interest... and many over 2x price if they re-fi, so consider a 500k house to really be 1M that you won't be putting in retirement (sure, you might get the 500-1000k back, but it won't have grown like a stocks acct). Buying a home to live in is not some fantastic appreciating asset like an 8-plex apartment rental or a business or a bunch of dividend stock; it was 20 or 30 years ago, but that's seldom the case anymore. Good luck, man

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