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  • Lordosis
    replied
    Gotta love horoscope like predictions.

    "There will be a change in your future"

    Leave a comment:


  • Tim
    replied
    Great!
    Just waiting for the loan repayment schedule.
    Copies of complete loan documents.
    UCC statements.
    Closing documents on each loan.

    So you want to payoff debt. Each loan has a balance and terms. Simply put it on schedule and document it.
    How much and when?

    The topic is loan payments, not the market. Stay on point. It doesn’t matter about the assets liquidations or earnings or liquidations ( unless you don’t have free title).
    That’s the beauty of debt, it’s easy to define and payoff.
    Once you have the plan, all you have to do is document the payments.
    One rule, no new debt and make the payments.
    That is you goal isn’t it? Then make a plan and execute.
    By the way, you can sell any assets to get cash to pay. Don’t care. Just the schedule of debt and hit the payments. In other words, it’s not relevant and doesn’t add value to the goal.
    Good luck.


    Leave a comment:


  • G
    replied
    "50% drop or so the better, history says about Dow 14-15K. There may or may not be another 10-20 percent melt up"

    So...what you're saying is that equities could go up or they could go down.

    That just might be right.

    Good grief

    Leave a comment:


  • EntrepreneurMD
    replied




    How did your 2x tech funds do so far this week?

    DXQLX lost 6+% in one day. Sounds like your leading indicators need a tuneup. Good thing you are conservative and don’t go all in.

    “The sooner we see a 50% drop or so the better”.
    Are you waiting for 50%? What is your trigger and by when?
    Click to expand...


    Anyone in the markets had a bad week. With diversified investment vehicles, who cares? Only about 12% of NW is in the markets. So the recession happens. Just wait it out for the peak of the next bull run. More likely there may be that retail investor melt up in the months after the 2/10 inversion. Probably another opportunity for the smart institutional money to unload most funds at higher levels. If not no big deal. A big recession is a tremendous opportunity and washes out overleverage and excess. Rewards the patient. Don't fear it, it's a rare opportunity.

    50% a good historical number, extent of a recession/depression is monitored by data points to clue you in on good entry point, no one knows where it will land (top of last bull market (2007 in this case) often bottom). 30% will at least get my interest. Great Depression was about 90%. The bigger the drop, generally the longer the stabilization period and the longer you have to identify a bottom. 2/10 yield inversions suggests it should happen sometime within the next 2 years based on historical norms.

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  • Tim
    replied
    How did your 2x tech funds do so far this week?

    DXQLX lost 6+% in one day. Sounds like your leading indicators need a tuneup. Good thing you are conservative and don’t go all in.

    “The sooner we see a 50% drop or so the better”.
    Are you waiting for 50%? What is your trigger and by when?


    Leave a comment:


  • EntrepreneurMD
    replied
    Oh yes. I like the feedback from those that recommended paying off the smaller resetting loans first and take my time with the commercial loans. Based on those recommendations, I'm thinking home loan then car loan then credit card debt all in 2019.

    One person mentioned paying off the commercial loan in intervals over 2-3 years to still wind up with the same reserve level ultimately, perhaps $500K/year which is about how fast I accumulate reserves annually. I liked their idea.

    Leave a comment:


  • jacoavlu
    replied




    Is there a general rule regarding debt repayment, or is it specific to one’s own circumstances (income, NW, tax benefits of debt, etc.)?

    Commercial loan $1.4M 10 year (no balloon) 3.5% fixed, 8 years left, payment is $17K/month

    Home loan $350K 5 year arm 2.75%, resetting 11/1/2019, payment is currently $1700/month

    Car loan $65K 6 year loan 1.75%, 3 years left, payment is $1700/month

    Credit card debt $45K 0% intro term, resetting 1/2020, 4/2020 split about 50/50 on two cards, minimum payment is currently $470/month.

    CD interest income 2.65%-3% 12-18 month CD terms, savings interest 1.5%-2.3% with combined interest income about $50K/year on $2.1M cash flow reserves for annual expenditures (not expenses) about $1.9M.

    Pay off highest interest rate debts off first? Pay off smallest loans first to decrease monthly payments/improve cash flow? Pay off non tax-advantaged auto loans first? Pay off by riskiest attached asset? Pay off everything and wipe out reserves? Pay off debts as they reset from low to high interest rate (5 year ARM, credit cards) or refinance them to pay off highest debt rates first.

    Do not recommend I invest it in these markets instead, you all know how I feel about the current markets, it’s not 2009. I’m more interested in debt repayment strategies. However I proceed, I wanted all debts paid off in next 2-3 years.

    How would you tackle? Thanks in advance.
    Click to expand...


    What I meant by my question is, relative to this original post, after getting opinions from the forum, what’s your plan with regards to the debt? Are you paying any of this off imminently, or just going to keep making payments and holding lots of cash?

    Leave a comment:


  • EntrepreneurMD
    replied




    So EMD what’s your debt repayment plan now? And where does that leave you with regards to remaining debt and remaining cash?
    Click to expand...


    No change other than the acceleration of my existing plans to prepare for the bear/next bull cycle.

    The onslaught of recent critical data points clearly accelerates the onset of the next inevitable recession given the 2/10 inversion and world economic predicament. This may be the beginning of a major recession/depression, or it may come in 2020/21 but clearly it is going to come sooner rather than later. This wasn't rocket science, I was saying this since I showed up on CYAI due to the age of the bull, the sideways markets since 01/2018, weak inflation (pricing power), rising gold prices, etc. I mean come on, how much do people need to see reality? It can also be a market that continues without direction, but I doubt it (further data points should help assess).

    Given this is what I have been preparing for, my decisions may accelerate. The sooner we see a 50% drop or so the better, history says about Dow 14-15K. There may or may not be another 10-20 percent melt up that we often see before the big sell off. I certainly will continue deleveraging debt but if the new bull will start sooner rather than later, may slow the repayment of the commercial office building  so the dry gunpowder is ready to work in the next bull. Spectacular opportunities abound.

    What many struggled to understand is that I didn't put funds into 3% CD's for the return, but to house the funds for those spectacular opportunities whether it's in a new young bull (preferred), lower borrowing rates for future real estate acquisition, or lower vendor costs for the expansion of my business - goal is to get it from 3 providers to 8-10 providers over the next decade.

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  • jacoavlu
    replied
    So EMD what’s your debt repayment plan now? And where does that leave you with regards to remaining debt and remaining cash?

    Leave a comment:


  • EntrepreneurMD
    replied
    Absorption of new data is not reacting. Some days news is more important than others. 2/10 hasn't inverted since 2007.

    Didn't react at all. Didn't buy. Didn't sell. Didn't change trading strategy or debt payment plans.

    No back peddle. Doom and gloom I would have sold.

    Leave a comment:


  • fatlittlepig
    replied





    If some positives emerge, perhaps I would reverse my trend of selling on the highs rather than buying on a dip. 
    Click to expand…




    2/10 year yield inverted. Gold up, oil down. World’s second largest economy slowed faster than expected. Inflation surprise. What a slew of great news. Like clockwork. Reinforces deleveraging debt for now and market fire sale later. 
    Click to expand…


    Reacting to daily news and current events can really get you into trouble.  Your 2 last posts were less then 12 hours apart and you go from a slight back peddle to doom and gloom again.

    Buy the market, pay down debt, hoard gold, Do whatever you want but do not base it on the news of the day.
    Click to expand...


    So true. @lordosis speaks wisely.

    Leave a comment:


  • Lordosis
    replied


    If some positives emerge, perhaps I would reverse my trend of selling on the highs rather than buying on a dip.
    Click to expand...




    2/10 year yield inverted. Gold up, oil down. World’s second largest economy slowed faster than expected. Inflation surprise. What a slew of great news. Like clockwork. Reinforces deleveraging debt for now and market fire sale later.
    Click to expand...


    Reacting to daily news and current events can really get you into trouble.  Your 2 last posts were less then 12 hours apart and you go from a slight back peddle to doom and gloom again.

    Buy the market, pay down debt, hoard gold, Do whatever you want but do not base it on the news of the day.

    Leave a comment:


  • EntrepreneurMD
    replied
    2/10 year yield inverted. Gold up, oil down. World's second largest economy slowed faster than expected. Inflation surprise. What a slew of great news.

    Like clockwork. Reinforces deleveraging debt for now and market fire sale later.

    Leave a comment:


  • EntrepreneurMD
    replied
    Zaphod,

    Updating daily my friend to the fund of data points that culminate in my strategy. A headline is great but needs to follow thru with hard data. 10yr/2yr treasury on the verge of inversion today (the more important inversion) - will that trend of bad data reverse or continue?

    I expect China to at least wait out the 2020 election. In the meantime will they give Trump a watered down deal so he can play hero president or will he be aggravated?

    If some positives emerge, perhaps I would reverse my trend of selling on the highs rather than buying on a dip. Obviously one headline is not enough to make a significant change and I'm still inclined to work on debt repayment rather than market investment. Plan to pay off the home mortgage in about 2 months. There should be a market rally this fall/winter - will it have substance or be another fool's rally? 4-6 months of data points coming. Plenty of time to change my mind on 2-3 year plan.

    The world economies need to stop retreating (in terms of rapidly slowing growth) with this and other potential near future central bank rate cuts.

    On a positive note the US consumer is very strong, inflation remains tame for now, monthly hiring has held up, lower rates spurring refinancing, low regulatory environment.

    Who knows? Collective data critical in this environment.

    Leave a comment:


  • Zaphod
    replied







    “my own current research ” ?
    Please provide the data. Fear sells.
    Click to expand…


    “With world economic growth slowing and spreading contagion into the US markets, contraction in some sectors (ie. manufacturing), the escalating trade war and business uncertainty, treasury yield inversion and collapse, Brexit, Eurozone weakness, 18 months of essentially no real market returns, weakening oil demand, gold rising, other leading indicators, it’s an interesting time to be recommending the stock market.”

    Not sounding like Goldilocks to me personally right now. If you’re recommending market entry at this level, sell me on the hope argument.
    Click to expand...


    Agree this time feels different and indeed some things are coming to a head, we may be past point of no return but each choice/intervention/etc...changes it and you have to update. For example, was feeling as you do lately, but today, trump backed down 50%...now this may not change the ultimate outcome if he persists, but it does change the attitudes and the acceleration for sure. Interested to see next couple months of data and what the fed does with a flip flopping every couple weeks on such serious and consequential matters.

    Leave a comment:

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