Question of opinion for you all.
Being in my early thirties and only having completed one home transaction, I don't have much experience with the fluctuation of housing prices over time as some of you. Housing prices to-date are no doubt inflated and have been trending up in most areas for the past few years. I've been looking at homes near us on Zillow in suburbia Phoenix which are quintessential "middle class", that were going for $240k in 2004-05 and are now up to $400-500k.
With the crash in 2008, I don't think some of my generation really understood at the time what a dramatic event that was. Homes were losing hundreds of thousands of dollars in value, which wasn't simply a "downturn". With this, in talking with friends and colleagues recently I hear phrases being thrown out like "when the housing market comes down again..." or "I'm waiting for the prices to drop". I'm not an economist, but unless something catastrophic happens it doesn't seem like we will see the 2008-type collapse again in such a short time.
So my question is, when the market does eventually "downturn", how far do you think home prices will realistically decline? 5%? 10%? 20%? Will the house that is currently going for $500k in suburbia Phoenix, without much land or anything special about it, ever return to a $400k range? Or has the old $250k home become the new $450k home and is here to stay?
Being in my early thirties and only having completed one home transaction, I don't have much experience with the fluctuation of housing prices over time as some of you. Housing prices to-date are no doubt inflated and have been trending up in most areas for the past few years. I've been looking at homes near us on Zillow in suburbia Phoenix which are quintessential "middle class", that were going for $240k in 2004-05 and are now up to $400-500k.
With the crash in 2008, I don't think some of my generation really understood at the time what a dramatic event that was. Homes were losing hundreds of thousands of dollars in value, which wasn't simply a "downturn". With this, in talking with friends and colleagues recently I hear phrases being thrown out like "when the housing market comes down again..." or "I'm waiting for the prices to drop". I'm not an economist, but unless something catastrophic happens it doesn't seem like we will see the 2008-type collapse again in such a short time.
So my question is, when the market does eventually "downturn", how far do you think home prices will realistically decline? 5%? 10%? 20%? Will the house that is currently going for $500k in suburbia Phoenix, without much land or anything special about it, ever return to a $400k range? Or has the old $250k home become the new $450k home and is here to stay?
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