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Correction or bear market?

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  • Correction or bear market?

    https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bea...tion-05-22-20/

    Unfortunately, I don’t know how to do a poll. What are people’s thoughts ?
    a) bear market
    b) correction and ongoing bull market

  • #2
    Oh, chartists.

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    • #3
      Well, there’s three Candlesticks (but they’ve been replaced by Levi’s), so I suppose we’d have to look across the Bay to Oakland to find the answer.

      I ran out of Head & Shoulders, but I do still have these tea leaves... I suppose if the Wuhan bat sees his own shadow...

      Yep, the market will definitely go up. Unless it doesn’t, which you also could tell if you consulted the chart.

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      • #4
        Looking at those charts without delving into the details perhaps it is just a very wicked correction to an overheated market. Time will tell.

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        • #5
          Isn't a bear market by definition a 20% drop. Does the recovery make a difference in what it called? This is just terminology

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          • #6
            Long-term returns to both stocks and bonds will be far below historical averages from here (because valuations), but I think the linked article is useless.

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            • #7

              I'm disappointed they didn't find the time to talk about inverted yield curves, market melt ups or pushing chips in at DOW 18k, therefore will have to take all that analysis with a grain of salt. (Yes, this is sarcasm).

              Bear markets have a way of “suckering” investors back into the market to inflict the most pain possible.
              Such is why “bear markets” never end with optimism but in despair.
              Hilarious closing line. Hasn't every single bear by definition ended with the dawn of a bull? Pretty sure that "despair" is not what everyone is feeling the day the stock market closes 20% up from the low. Caution, I could believe. This is why buy and hold works for the majority of investors. As long as they don't get in their own way and sell near the bottom, the total stock market historically always goes up with time. Now, if you believe the US economy is heading towards a new and unprecedented era with no rebound, then that is a different discussion. Many have believed this in the past and they have been wrong every single time. This article is a good example of what people mean when they say bad news and pessimistic outlooks always sell.
              Last edited by TheDangerZone; 05-24-2020, 09:53 AM.

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              • #8
                wait for it...

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                • #9
                  Don’t know, don’t care.

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                  • #10
                    A divorce between the real economy and the financial economy can go on only temporarily. The Q1 earnings reflected only about 2 weeks of pandemic effects. The Q2 numbers will be telling. The Fed isn’t Atlas, able to take unlimited weight on its shoulders. That the market is now valued at last October levels, when we had ~5% unemployment and no pandemic is nonsensical. Of course one easily goes broke trying to predict the markets. But I think we are in for an extensive downturn.
                    My Youtube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFF...MwBiAAKd5N8qPg

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Antares View Post
                      A divorce between the real economy and the financial economy can go on only temporarily. The Q1 earnings reflected only about 2 weeks of pandemic effects. The Q2 numbers will be telling. The Fed isn’t Atlas, able to take unlimited weight on its shoulders. That the market is now valued at last October levels, when we had ~5% unemployment and no pandemic is nonsensical. Of course one easily goes broke trying to predict the markets. But I think we are in for an extensive downturn.
                      So you don’t believe in the efficient market ?

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Panscan View Post

                        So you don’t believe in the efficient market ?
                        At this moment? Tell me you are not joking.
                        My Youtube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFF...MwBiAAKd5N8qPg

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Are we seeing a V shaped, U shaped, W shaped, L shaped, or square root sign recovery?

                          I don't know. Solvency is obviously becoming a problem for many companies. It's gonna be a rough time for main street as more and more get laid off because small and large businesses fail.

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                          • #14
                            I honestly wonder if anyone can make money by looking at these charts. As opposed to just buying shares of a broad index.
                            "Oh look another bajillion point declin-Ooooh!!! A coupon for pizza!!!!" <--- This is what everyone's IPS should be. ✓✓✓

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                            • #15
                              It all depends on the success of opening up the economy. If the engine cranks over and starts smoke and backfires and sputters don't matter. 2Q and 3Q are in the dumpster. The market will react to the direction of the economy and the rate of recovery. Not the absolute measurement. If 4Q it's headed up, rough sailing with China and all kinds of fallout but the path is set. I doubt the population will tolerate a shutdown again. But that would lead to a lack of confidence and a downturn.
                              Likely to the previous lows. Actually, some reports that kids and schools do not spread Covid-19 have led to a lack of confidence in the healthcare guidance that seems to be lost in a political pit of quicksand. The market has discounted the healthcare "guidelines". Full speed ahead into the storm. I doubt the ship will sink.

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