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  • #16
    I vote for bear market rally and that we go down from current levels, perhaps to retest the lows from a few days ago. There seems to be enough uncertainty around everything and enough doom and gloom such that the all clear signal is well into the future. Yes, the market will have a sustainable rise before the all clear sign, but I still think we are not there.

    Perhaps when there is a time that I am required to be somewhere outside the home or have to put on something other than workout clothes or joggers and a t-shirt it will be a signal. I will let you know.

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    • #17
      Everything is still opaque and in flux, but from the reporting I've read about the stimulus bill, the Federal Reserve will be given 425B to be capitalized as a credit reserve facility (de facto bank). From that, they can lever up to 10x. So, up to 4 TRILLION dollars in near 0% interest loans will be available to big corporations to do what they wish. Not much oversight or regulations on the loans (no idea why).

      The separate airline bailout has much more stringent requirements, due to labor involvement in the discussions.

      The big companies and banks are getting a MASSIVE bailout of historical proportions, which is going to be great for them to recover from this. Maybe that has something to do with the continuing rally?

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      • #18
        To me there are a few major things that the market is just ignoring. First, the massive unemployment- although stimulus will be sending out checks and unemployment wages are being supplemented who’s to say jobs will open back up for this population? Secondly, there will be an obvious lag to revenue/earnings numbers both devaluating the stocks and making it harder to have a Re-hiring blitz. Finally, the duration of the virus seems to be undervalued by the markets actions as well. It will be hard for me to digest earnings season guidance in April when I’m assuming COVID-19 will still be looming, consumer confidence will be shaken and we may not have a “light at the end of the tunnel”.

        Markets trading up over SOME families getting one check and retirement accounts being opened to access without penalty (but long term consequence & 3 year laybacks) while ignoring another day of non-essential business shutdowns, unemployment etc just doesn’t make logical sense.
        Founder, Coastal Wealth Planners: www.coastal-wp.com email: [email protected]

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        • #19
          Originally posted by Lordosis View Post

          I made it simple by request.

          If someone would like to elaborate on their thoughts feel free to comment.
          Could you create a poll with only one answer? Like on your drivers license, Sex is YES.

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          • #20
            Originally posted by Tim View Post

            Could you create a poll with only one answer? Like on your drivers license, Sex is YES.
            I actually tried that to make a joke on Peds but the forum does not allow only one choice.

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            • #21
              Originally posted by Lordosis View Post

              I actually tried that to make a joke on Peds but the forum does not allow only one choice.
              Idea: Make option 2 say: "do not click, use option 1 instead"
              ____________________________

              I think we've hit (or were close to) the "floor". It will bounce higher like the is few days, then fall back to where we were, maybe a tad lower if we get more than one big negative news tidbit per day.
              "Oh look another bajillion point declin-Ooooh!!! A coupon for pizza!!!!" <--- This is what everyone's IPS should be. ✓✓✓

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              • #22
                Originally posted by Lordosis View Post

                I actually tried that to make a joke on Peds but the forum does not allow only one choice.
                Same answer two times? Heads I win, tails you lose? Teaching your 4 year old critical thinking skills requires creativity doesn't it?
                It's definitely a bottom on Monday March 23 11:30 am. You failed to mention a time period.

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by Khart23 View Post
                  To me there are a few major things that the market is just ignoring. First, the massive unemployment- although stimulus will be sending out checks and unemployment wages are being supplemented who’s to say jobs will open back up for this population? Secondly, there will be an obvious lag to revenue/earnings numbers both devaluating the stocks and making it harder to have a Re-hiring blitz. Finally, the duration of the virus seems to be undervalued by the markets actions as well. It will be hard for me to digest earnings season guidance in April when I’m assuming COVID-19 will still be looming, consumer confidence will be shaken and we may not have a “light at the end of the tunnel”.

                  Markets trading up over SOME families getting one check and retirement accounts being opened to access without penalty (but long term consequence & 3 year laybacks) while ignoring another day of non-essential business shutdowns, unemployment etc just doesn’t make logical sense.
                  man i think this is spot on.

                  it's crazy to me that the market went up 10% seemingly on a single crappy bill getting hammered out.

                  even if we pile unrealistic optimism on top of itself the people least in tune with the actual virus are talking about trying to get things going again in 2-3 weeks. they can say whatever they want but if cities are trying to find places to put the bodies (see Italy, Spain) then it's hard to see how Best Buy is up and doing great.

                  if you don't think we are still going to be knee dip in this thing by mid-April you just aren't paying attention at this point.

                  the This Time is Different with this particular market is that the recovery will have a black cloud hanging over it. how many people are going to spending money a few months after the worst has past? everyone will be hearing that recurrence is possible and a vaccine is a year away. the only people spending will be those with disposable income and super low information consumers. what does the holiday shopping season look like this year? people jammed into Walmart? i doubt it even if best case viral scenarios play out.

                  for those of us with long investing horizons this will turn out to be a memorable blip but that's not the case for medium term economic forecasts.

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                  • #24
                    MPMD thank you. In short: Its not rocket science that price should follow earnings... buying now with no proof of concept is like buying anything with .com 20 years ago. The earnings will cut multiples back down to size.

                    good luck out there and THANK YOU to all of you for your service everyday, and especially now.
                    Founder, Coastal Wealth Planners: www.coastal-wp.com email: [email protected]

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                    • #25
                      So I think it is crystal clear from the poll... we are on our way back up!! Wooowoooo!!

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        In a completely tongue in cheek and BS post on 3/14 I wrote: down another week or two, sharp move up in a month, reach previous highs 18 months later. I’m 2 for 3. Listen to me folks! I have integrated all possible data.

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                        • #27


                          Hi ho the Dario the Peds stands alone!

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