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Doom and gloom, I miss Crixus....

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  • #16
    1. Has anyone seen a graph with overlay of COVD mortality rates on top of flu mortality according to various age groups.

    2. USA may have much better health systems but is caught in a bind because of election year. The main selling point of Trump for his reelection is the economy. If that goes, he goes. So he will try his best to not let it go crashing. One way is to minimize testing, under report actual cases and reduce any panic. Unfortunately on the other side the democratic presidential hopefuls want a slowdown or recession so that they could be elected POTUS and will try their best to try and cause it. Sadly we the people in the middle are caught between the two warring fractions.

    3. I am concerned how much actual care I will receive if I become sick. It is nice to say we have so many vents and ICU beds in our hospital but if they are already occupied by people on vents from other causes like end stage COPD or COVID cases who came before me, how will I get a vent for a fully reversible condition.

    4. I do not have much faith in having a vaccine or antiviral for it in time, The virus can mutate to make the vaccine no effective, even if one is made.

    5. This should be wake up call for us that we need to manufacture critical components like antibiotics and other medicines and medical equipment in USA. If China can confiscate an American mask producing factory in China for its own use, I do not place any more trust in that country. We should have sufficient incentives for companies that move their manufacturing to USA and maybe more taxes on those that move it overseas. I may be one of the rare persons who is glad we did put tarries on China a year ago.

    6. Five years later this might be a blip in the radar of the past economy but right now it is taking a life of its own due to medical and political reasons.

    Stay healthy.

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    • #17
      Should a recession ensue, rare opportunity rather than doom and gloom should be the attitude.

      Comment


      • #18
        From an investment standpoint, “This time it’s different “.
        Really? It is unique, the health , economic , and market ramifications will severely impact “everyone”. In 5 years it will be 2020-2025 on the y axis of a graph, history. It will be over.
        The problem is, the casualties and permanent damage will be related, but not correlated.
        The coast is clear, until the next one.
        Don’t for a minute “assume” politics and armed conflicts don’t begin to surface as a result. Self preservation beats “ethics” every time.
        The only thing different about Coronavirus is that it’s “this time”. Hey folks, we are about 30 days into this one. It will blow over in 5 years. There will be casualties. Strategy is more important than tactics, unless you are one of the casualties.
        Good luck, I think luck might be more important than skill “this time”.

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        • #19
          Originally posted by jfoxcpacfp View Post
          Investment tip of the day: turn off the news.

          I cannot put my finger on the historical map correlating stock prices with various "end of times" events since 1900, but if I do, I'll post it. We've somehow made it past WWI, WWII, the election at one time or another of presidents we think will be the downfall of America, terrorist attacks, catastrophes in many shapes and forms. And we get through it and continue ticking upward. The human race is resilient. It may be a curse to be a doctor during these times and know more than the rest of us to.
          The below chart has even more data than I was looking for, but it's really fascinating. This period will be just another dot on the chart in a few years.

          https://virtueofselfishinvesting.s3.....png?link=mktw
          Last edited by jfoxcpacfp; 02-27-2020, 08:55 AM.
          Financial planning, investment management and CPA services for medical and high-income professionals | 270-247-6087

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          • #20
            Originally posted by Kamban View Post
            1. Has anyone seen a graph with overlay of COVD mortality rates on top of flu mortality according to various age groups.

            I saw a graphic about COVID death and age groups and it was much, much worse for those >60, which isn't a surprise. I tried finding the graphic again but couldn't.


            Originally posted by Kamban View Post
            3. I am concerned how much actual care I will receive if I become sick. It is nice to say we have so many vents and ICU beds in our hospital but if they are already occupied by people on vents from other causes like end stage COPD or COVID cases who came before me, how will I get a vent for a fully reversible condition.
            I'll bag you for however long you need.

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            • #21
              Originally posted by jfoxcpacfp View Post

              This chart has even more data than I was looking for, but it's really fascinating. This period will be just another dot on the chart in a few years.
              The link is wonky for me.

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              • #22
                Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

                The link is wonky for me.
                If you copy the link and paste into a browser it works.

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                • #23
                  I think the markets are due for a real gut-punch. This is probably going to be it. The pandemic is going to have real effects on spending, profits and earnings in the upcoming quarters, possibly the election results from there... So it should have a significant effect on the stock market for awhile. Then we will have a recovery.

                  It’s funny that as the stock market becomes mature and over-stretched, something “unpredictable” comes along to knock it over, like clockwork. Random, unpredictable events actually seem to be part of the system. Every decade or so lately.

                  As a side note, I always found it interesting that during the Flu Pandemic of 1918, the sickest patients had to travel and be moved, while the mildly ill stayed put for the war. This spread the deadlier strains of the virus to a greater degree.

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                  • #24
                    I agree with Irwin's take:
                    "In a services economy you can whistle past a manufacturing recession but not a travel and shopping lockdown"
                    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/25/u...-analysis.html
                    It's psychosomatic. You need a lobotomy, I'll get a saw.

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                    • #25
                      Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

                      The link is wonky for me.
                      I fixed it - sorry!
                      Financial planning, investment management and CPA services for medical and high-income professionals | 270-247-6087

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                      • #26
                        https://awealthofcommonsense.com/202...et-correction/

                        My favorite is #9, take Marcus Aurelius of the two options, though Yoda would be another choice (When nine hundred years old you reach, look as good you will not).

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by ENT Doc View Post
                          Do I need to give the Bill Puhlman speech at the end of Independence Day? Come on people. Relax. Humans respond. We will fight. We will win. Murica.

                          Stay the course.
                          Our ability to respond to, mitigate and navigate any type of crisis right now is probably the lowest it has been in modern times. Because we as a nation will be unable to come up with a cohesive and effective plan more people will die. That’s what’s keeping me up at night. Not a fear for the economy. The economy will recover in a few years. But then again we are years away from retirement and if we were closer It would make me think twice about possibly retiring. We are staying the course with our investments.
                          Last edited by jfoxcpacfp; 02-27-2020, 10:00 AM. Reason: Political comment removed.

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                          • #28
                            When 9/11 hit I called my adviser(when I still had one) to start moving cash into equities. Was I being a jerk for doing so?

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                            • #29
                              Originally posted by burritos View Post
                              When 9/11 hit I called my adviser(when I still had one) to start moving cash into equities. Was I being a jerk for doing so?
                              No. Just because you were stunned (as I'm sure you were) doesn't mean your brain shut down. In fact, I think buying into businesses at that point was an extremely patriotic (not to mention prescient) action. How would it have helped anybody for you to not do that?
                              Financial planning, investment management and CPA services for medical and high-income professionals | 270-247-6087

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                              • #30
                                Originally posted by ajm184 View Post
                                https://awealthofcommonsense.com/202...et-correction/

                                My favorite is #9, take Marcus Aurelius of the two options, though Yoda would be another choice (When nine hundred years old you reach, look as good you will not).
                                #12 is a winner.

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