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  • Current Market Valuations

    https://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php

    As of today, the Total Market Index is at $ 30650.9 billion, which is about 143.6% of the last reported GDP. The total market valuation is measured by the ratio of total market cap (TMC) to GNP -- the equation representing Warren Buffett's "best single measure". We can see that, during the past four decades, the TMC/GNP ratio has varied within a very wide range. The lowest point was about 35% in the previous deep recession of 1982, while the highest point was 148% during the tech bubble in 2000. The US stock market is positioned for an average annualized return of -2%, estimated from the historical valuations of the stock market. This includes the returns from the dividends, currently yielding at 1.82%. As of 10/23/2019, the stock market is likely to return -2% a year in the next 8 years.

    for all the newbies, wework's implosion is sooo 1999

  • #2
    Short the market then

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    • #3
      I'm buckled up, ready for a bumpy ride:-)

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      • #4
        Can meet my goals with those -2% real returns so... Oh well.

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        • #5




          Short the market then
          Click to expand...


          i prefer owning shares of unregulated monopolies

           

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          • #6
            I am starting to wish it would just crash to shut everyone up about impending market crashes.

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            • #7




              I am starting to wish it would just crash to shut everyone up about impending market crashes.
              Click to expand...


              neither myself or the article says crash, the analysis suggests (which Buffett calls the "single best measure") that the stock market is likely to return -2% a year in the next 8 years.

              not an interesting discussion to anyone?  you'd rather be reading another whole life insurance or fire my financial advisor thread?  barf

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              • #8
                Didn't Softbank just throw WeWork a life raft?

                 

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                • #9




                  not an interesting discussion to anyone?
                  Click to expand...


                  It's an interesting topic, but my opinions are already well known. We (forum members) have discussed market valuation and prospective market returns many times.

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                  • #10
                    When the market corrects itself the 10 year outlook will be much more attractive from the bottom.

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                    • #11




                      Didn’t Softbank just throw WeWork a life raft?

                       
                      Click to expand...


                      Closer to a life preserver. Softbank's new emergency financing values WeWork at $8B, down from a previous purchase at a valuation of $47B.

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                      • #12


                        As of 10/23/2019, the stock market is likely to return -2% a year in the next 8 years. for all the newbies, wework’s implosion is sooo 1999
                        Click to expand...


                        It's settled then! Everyone go home and see you back in 8 years.

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                        • #13
                          I mean, maybe?
                          The plan doesn't change though.
                          Therefore what are you supposed to do?

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                          • #14
                            I’ll take my chances, and keep plowing money into the market every two weeks.

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                            • #15
                              Yes, market returns expected to be lousy even if a correction doesn't occur. It's gone almost nowhere since it's run into January 2018. Naturally we're due for a period of underperformance which seems to have already started. So many ways to outperform. Those desperate for market returns lose their objectivity regarding market returns. I suspect a rotation of cash that will drive real estate prices, already seeing this reflected in real estate funds.

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