Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Wippersnappers

Collapse
X
Collapse
First Prev Next Last
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Lordosis
    replied
    @tim good post. I enjoy most of actuary on fire's posts.

    Leave a comment:


  • Tim
    replied
    That said, the first seven months have really been great haven’t they? Interest rates, jobs, GDP , dang that was really a sharp V recovery. Glad it took 7 months, gives me a lot of certainty.

    What screws me up is YTR, Year to Retirement. Makes me debate AA all over again. Please note the chart seems to cherrypick the length of retirement to “prove” a point. Interesting linkage to YTR rather than age.

    https://www.theretirementmanifesto.com/200-years-of-safe-withdrawal-rates-in-one-cool-chart/

    Leave a comment:


  • The White Coat Investor
    replied




    I hear it on this forum and on other sites as well.  “You young investors that have not been through hard economic times do not know how you will react”  Or some version of that.

    I was not investing back in 08-09.  I was still in school and taking a ton of loans at that time.  I however am quite capable of looking at history and market trends and can see what has happened in the recent past.  As long as you have a belief that the Market will always go up eventually you will stay in and ride out the tough times.

    Everyone seems to discount this most recent correction last December.  I felt it was a nice test.  I sold a home in December and needed to deal with the equity (about 50K) when my check cleared in early January.  I used it to start my taxable account and plunked it all in VTSAX.  Along with 12K more for the back door roth.  I only wish I got my hands on the money a week earlier.

     

    Those of you who have been around the block.

    Did you bite off more then you could chew in the past?  Do you preach stay conservative until you are a hardened investor? Any words of wisdom?

     

    Other young guys.

    Do you find this annoying as well?  Do you tread carefully or are you invested aggressively?

     

    Fun Aside- Every time I hear the argument I cannot help relate it to GoT when the older characters complain about the Green boys who only know summer.
    Click to expand...


    I certainly mention this frequently in my writing. I don't think anyone really knows their risk tolerance until they go through a bear market.

    That said, last December was a bear market, so it's probably the best gauge for whippersnappers who weren't investing in 2008-2009. If it really didn't bother you a bit, your asset allocation probably isn't too aggressive.

    Leave a comment:


  • GasFIRE
    replied
    Formerly young, now old investor. I view investing as being in phases. Your stage of life and amount of skin in the game matter. I experienced Black Monday 1987 from my residency with minimal investment assets, watched it on TV and cared little. Soon after I joined a private practice and entered my accumulation phase. 100% equity mindset and was working on my 2nd $M when the 2000 dot.com bust hit. It didn’t bother me and I carried on. In 2008 with much more skin in the game came the Great Recession. During the middle of the decline I couldn’t stomach it as well as before so I took some of my chips off the table and realized bonds derisk the portfolio.  Nevertheless my paper loss exceeded my NW at the bottom of the dot.com bear. But as a physician my biggest advantage during this brutal downturn was my W-2 in a field with low job volatility. I knew engineers, pharmacists and accountants who lost their positions during this recession. That will really throw a detour into any FI plan whether it includes RE or not. Now in my pre-retirement phase, I am preparing for Medicare, SS, RMD. While I seek a reasonable return, maximizing gain is less important than minimizing risk. Regardless of your ideal AA or what your IPS says, it’s OK to make midcourse adjustments in response to changes in life, circumstances or attitude.

    Leave a comment:


  • Larry Ragman
    replied





    And I still don’t agree with your 100% equity portfolio @lordosis
    Click to expand…


    HAHA.  Think that 10% will save you?

    I have done a lot of thinking about when to add my bonds and your points have made quite an influence jut so you know.  I have not pulled a trigger yet.  I just do not think I need the diversification until I hit 1MM.

    Some day we can debate it over a beer and our spouses can call us dorks.
    Click to expand...


    Lordosis, your comment about pulling the trigger gets at an important point about whippersnappers and old farts: our asset allocations are likely different because we are at different stages of our risk tolerance. You may be comfortable that you can handle a major market correction at 100% equities because you are at a point where retirement money doesn’t matter, or it isn’t much yet. Someone like me at 3-5 years out from retirement might want a 70-30 split in order to stay fully invested in a major correction and still be happy with SORR.

    There is one other point to consider. It is not just about asset allocation; asset location matters too. For example, when your kids are 15 you will not want your 529 in 100% equities because you need to pull the money in three years, etc.

    Leave a comment:


  • Anne
    replied


    all the pundits were talking about complete collapse of the baking sector
    Click to expand...


    When I'm stressed I love to make cookies, brownies, etc. and so a complete collapse of the baking sector would totally do me in.

     

    Sorry.  I'm not trying to pick on a minor typo Happy Philosopher--I love your blog and completely agree with your comment.  I just thought the forum could use some levity today with all the fuss over nothing that seems to be currently trending.

    Leave a comment:


  • artemis
    replied




    As I and others have stated before, it is not just the market downturn that gets to you. It’s your brother-in-law losing his job. And your neighbor losing her home. And your practice volume dropping because people do not have the money for their deductibles or for elective appointments and procedures. There is fear everywhere.
    Click to expand...


    Yes, and that fear can be contagious, and can make hoarding your cash rather than taking advantage of a great buying opportunity seem like a very good idea!  Job loss suddenly doesn't seem completely out of the picture, no matter how solid your practice seems to be on paper.

    It's truly hard for anyone to know how he/she will react in a major downturn (especially one lasting for weeks or months) until he/she has actually experienced one.  It's the power of that emotional component that the young'uns don't necessarily understand.  Continuing to invest during a major downturn is emotionally very hard.  It feels like throwing the money away.

    Leave a comment:


  • VagabondMD
    replied
    As I and others have stated before, it is not just the market downturn that gets to you. It’s your brother-in-law losing his job. And your neighbor losing her home. And your practice volume dropping because people do not have the money for their deductibles or for elective appointments and procedures. There is fear everywhere.

     

    Leave a comment:


  • Tim
    replied
    To all you young bucks and does and fawns,

    Losing a million or two is not a pleasant experience. That is not intended to be alarming. Hatton1 and I am assuming the wise young man (WBD, that’s you) can probably relate.

    I think communication is simply intended to reduce a perception of over confidence at times, no more and no less. Everything should be fine for virtually everyone here.
    Non-fatal inconsequential errors:
    First, the vigorous debates of global vs US ?
    Second, global bonds vs us bonds vs muni’s ?
    For the second, 0-50%?
    Sorry, if one is working, who really cares?

    Fatalities DO happen in investing. Primarily self inflicted. The problem comes when a combination of factors leads to “forced errors”.
    Low likelihood example:
    • Burnout damages income
    • Spouse leaves and hires a high powered divorce attorney and wants “everything “
    • Big house, big mortgage
    • Kids in private schools
    • Wife bought a nice car with payments (no brainer low interest)
    • Wife cleaned out the EF
    • Market drops 20 %
    • Housing drops because three big employers have big layoffs and your city has “motivated sellers”

    Long term you will be fine. Most likely you will have huge short term liquidity problems and need to get your tailend back to work. The good, as a physician your skills will have value. The big law or accountant or petroleum engineer or senior VP of marketing has a harder climb.
    Your income can pull you through. Simply remember physicians can also lose that too, at least for 6 months or a year.

    The the projected returns for the various bond allocations are very small compared to going all in.
    Volatility at the wrong time is the perfect storm. Your burnout and marital problems magnify the fluctuations.

    Sorry, things happen. By the way, doctors take cash out for house downpayment and margin “investments”.
    Doctors divorce “badly”, have mortgages, kids in school, burnout, and sometimes even car payments. Life sometimes picks the absolute worst times to throw curve balls.
    If you biggest setback is the market, your bond holdings won’t be of any consequence in the long term. They will provide insurance if you happen to run into fatal combinations that insulate you.
    Head start helps the rational thinking.

    Nothing wrong with a balanced approach. Hardly anyone ever needs it , until they do.

    Leave a comment:


  • Peds
    replied
    Huh, what now?

    Leave a comment:


  • bean1970
    replied
    my husband graduated from medical school in 1987. He put his first wad of money in the market in June......Then came October 19, 1987....anything since then for him is NOTHING. That was 22.6% in ONE day.....um yesterday was like 3%........  I didn't even notice 2003, 2008, etc.....i notice stuff more just because the amount of money swinging is larger.....during all those years were also dollar cost averaging...every single week.  totally on autopilot....looking back i wish maybe i had paid more attention and thrown in more on the dip years.......if you don't pay attention is one word of advice....

    In November 1987 my husband's relative (who was a broker) told him to buy 1 share of BRK-A.......but it was a lot of money for him at the time...a couple thousand........oh well.....

    Leave a comment:


  • Lordosis
    replied








    Isn’t the correct spelling Whippersnappers? 
    Click to expand…


    Probably.  Speeling was nevar my stongest qaulity.
    Click to expand…


    @peds bait
    Click to expand...


    At least I respond to the threads I start!

    Leave a comment:


  • Zaphod
    replied





    Isn’t the correct spelling Whippersnappers? 
    Click to expand…


    Probably.  Speeling was nevar my stongest qaulity.
    Click to expand...


    @Peds bait

    Leave a comment:


  • MaxPower
    replied
    I guess for some I’m still a whippersnapper. My investing lifetime started in the summer of 2008 when we took $10,000 from the proceeds of our medical school condo sale to fund Roth IRAs (spouse and me). I watched that money, invested in the S&P 500 fund lose almost 40% of its value. My wife was no longer working and I had just started residency, so $4,000 was a lot of money to watch just disappear.

    I stayed the course and invested $10k more in our Roth IRAs as well as $3k per year at the end of 2008 and beginning of 2009 in at that time our only child’s 529 account. I just looked at her statement recently and noted that from that initial $6,000 investment it is currently worth $22,000, so $6,000 of contribution and $16,000 of growth.

    Based on that I feel like I have some idea of how I will react during s downturn. Even though the actual number of the “loss” is of a greater magnitude (tens of thousands now instead of just thousands), the percentages are all about the same. Intellectually, I think everybody on this board knows what the right answer is. Especially for those with long investing horizons, this should be a non-issue. The memory that sticks out most to me about the 2008/09 meltdown was the amount of articles I read talking about how so many people close to retirement had lost so much that they couldn’t retire because their asset allocations were way too aggressive for their timelines. To me that was the most important lesson from that crisis, and is hopefully something I avoid when I get to be that close to retirement and have hopefully won the game.

    Leave a comment:


  • Lordosis
    replied


    Isn’t the correct spelling Whippersnappers?
    Click to expand...


    Probably.  Speeling was nevar my stongest qaulity.

    Leave a comment:

Working...
X